It's often said that politics is a game of addition, but that, I believe, is a gross overstatement.
At least as important as addition in politics is subtraction, which is why so much money and effort is spent on the attack in political campaigns. Far from spending a lot of time on building coalitions, candidates with limited resources will pour almost all their resources into attacking the other guy to chip away at their support.
That's why there has been so much interest in the polls regarding the shutdown. Very few people are in favor of a government shutdown, although Republican voters love to joke that the worst part of a government shutdown is that it will end. In reality, while we may wish that a lot of the spending programs would be slashed or completely ended, we want air traffic controllers, the military, and other vital employees and services to remain open.
So it's natural that everybody involved in a shutdown takes a polling hit. Voters don't like being inconvenienced, and in an ideal world, things like government reform and spending priorities would be dealt with in a manner that didn't require brinksmanship.
Dream on, man.
Democrats bet that keeping the government closed to extend subsidies for Obamacare would be a political winner for them, chipping away at the Republicans' popularity more than their own. On this, they were quite wrong.
Pollster Frank Luntz stuns CNN with his latest breakdown on the government shutdown...and which party is taking the bigger hit.
— Overton (@overton_news) November 3, 2025
This segment did not go the way CNN wanted it to.
Luntz told the panel: “I believe that the shutdown is politically motivated. I believe that if they… pic.twitter.com/3pmQ97ovks
Luntz's comments follow on from what Harry Enten of CNN pointed out not so long ago: Democrats are taking most of the blame for the shutdown with voters other than...Democrats.
This shutdown is a different world for Trump than the 2018-19 shutdown. He's in a much better spot.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 20, 2025
His net approval is up slightly during this shutdown vs. dropping during 2018-19.
Why? The % who blame him a great deal for the shutdown is down significantly now vs. 2018-19. pic.twitter.com/WHEqHaqo4M
Now that clip was from nearly two weeks ago, but as you can see from how both Democrats and Republicans are behaving that the politics have not turned out as Democrats had hoped.
Trump is jetting around the world doing deals, Republicans are pounding on Democrats over the shutdown, and Democrats are talking about...the ballroom, with some SNAP benefit talk thrown in.
In the last week, the New York Times has published over two dozen pieces about Trump’s White House ballroom remodeling. Here’s just some of the headlines.
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) October 27, 2025
It’s a case study in the how the legacy media willfully ignores the issues that actually matter to everyday Americans. pic.twitter.com/gDxJPButaF
Sure, Republicans are taking a hit in the polls, but by the logic of subtraction, the Democrats are worse off than the Republicans. And, since politics is all about relative popularity and not absolute popularity, that means Republicans are winning this battle.
The government is shut down.
— Adam Schiff (@SenAdamSchiff) October 29, 2025
Millions are going to go hungry and lose their health care.
But Donald Trump is holding weekly meetings to discuss...his golden ballroom. pic.twitter.com/YPdinOl0Vy
Democrats know this, but they have a few reasons for keeping the battle going on so long, the first of which is November 4th. Off-year elections such as this one are driven by turnout, and the Democrats need their base fired up. The shutdown doesn't fire up Republicans so much for many reasons, while Democrats, who blame Trump, are angry about SNAP being cut.
And the Democrat base wants a fight, and that means that Democrats are going to give them one—at least until the voting is done tomorrow. Don't be surprised if the Democrats give in soon, as they look to the midterms, where more voters are expected to participate. The less an election depends upon base turnout alone, the more sensitive the Democrats will be to how Independents view things.
Still, Democrats will continue to face a dilemma when it comes to strategy. Their base has shifted further to the left, while the country is drifting rightward. That is a tough problem for them, although they can ride it out in 2025. Even if their margins may be lower than they otherwise would have been with a more moderate strategy, it is almost certain that they will win everywhere but New Jersey, and may win there despite the late surge for Jack Ciattarelli.
Winning by 6 instead of 10 is still a win. Winning by one is a win.
The problem Democrats have is not in any one election, but in brand erosion. Their brand keeps getting worse. What used to be a net asset is becoming a net liability, and the shutdown politics aren't helping them as they hoped.
Editor’s Note: The Schumer Shutdown is here. Rather than put the American people first, Chuck Schumer and the radical Democrats forced a government shutdown for healthcare for illegals. They own this.
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