As John wrote about earlier today, a State of Emergency has been declared in Crimea as the peninsula is being turned into an island with no real access to it sufficient to keep it supplied.
There is a huge traffic jam—for people who still have any fuel left to escape—of people who are trying to use the Crimean bridge that Putin built as a monument to himself and as the direct access for Russia to Crimea.
That bridge is damaged, but still functional enough for civilian traffic to use, if not heavy military trucks and trains. There is speculation that Zelensky has intentionally left it functional enough to facilitate civilians escaping the peninsula, although few thought his dream of making Crimea unlivable would come to pass.
It is coming to pass.
⚡️ Russian-installed authorities in occupied Crimea announce state of emergency amid intensified Ukrainian drone attacks.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 26, 2026
The statement comes a few days after large-scale Ukrainian drone strikes that hit a railway bridge across the North Crimean Canal, fuel facilities, and…
Russian-installed authorities in occupied Crimea announce state of emergency amid intensified Ukrainian drone attacks.The statement comes a few days after large-scale Ukrainian drone strikes that hit a railway bridge across the North Crimean Canal, fuel facilities, and military infrastructure across occupied Crimea.
I've been writing a few posts recently about the dramatic shift in Russia's fortunes in the war, and many of my commenters have scoffed. I was being a "homer," rooting too hard for Ukraine and buying their propaganda.
No. I, too, thought that Russia would be able to maintain enough of a stalemate in the war that it could never lose. That is why I was critical of Western policies to "fight to the last Ukrainian." I believed that Ukraine should cut a deal with Russia and end the war because it was bloody and useless. Russia was there to stay.
Russia reports one of the biggest Ukrainian drone attacks on its soil and annexed Crimea https://t.co/HlgVhOGYBf pic.twitter.com/2suraNdapN
— New York Post (@nypost) June 26, 2026
But a funny thing happened when Trump decided to change US support for Ukraine, not that I am suggesting that he intended this outcome: by making Ukraine have to rely more on an indigenous arms industry and less on American supplies, Ukraine dramatically reformed its military, became nimble and entrepreneurial, and is now outclassing not just Russia, but most countries in military technology and tactics.
And strategy. Ukraine is becoming a military powerhouse. Not enough to become a superpower, but enough to be formidable.
“This is Moscow, not Crimea, what the f*ck is going on?!"
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 26, 2026
Muscovites don't understand where the fuel crisis in the capital came from. pic.twitter.com/4zHdsaw3JI
The frontlines are still, for the most part, stalemated, but that is not where the action is in the war. Instead, the war has moved to the rear, where logistics play out, and onto Russian territory, where Putin's economy and war machine are getting devastated, piece by piece. He is seeing his military factories being destroyed, and his refineries damaged enough to hurt badly.
Moscow's refinery is out of service until 2027, if Ukraine allows it to come back online.
JUST PASSING THROUGH: Breaching what was once considered the most heavily defended airspace on earth, a Ukrainian AN-196 ‘Lyutyy' strike drone sails undisturbed over downtown Moscow. And in broad daylight, too. pic.twitter.com/hcu15eh7EW
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) June 25, 2026
Ukraine's most dramatic shift has been the consistent striking of strategic assets deep inside Russia, and the spectacular attacks on oil and industrial infrastructure in Moscow and St Petersburg, which are both damaging and scary to Russian civilians.
Less dramatic, but at least as important, is Ukraine's strikes on logistics, interdicting materiel headed to the front.
From “I’m not leaving Crimea” to “We’re leaving tomorrow” in just one day
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) June 24, 2026
You are now witnessing a remarkably fast process of a Russian woman coming to terms with reality. It took just 24 hours.
She is now packing her bags and preparing to leave with her daughters.
Her… pic.twitter.com/htmOraDfM4
From “I’m not leaving Crimea” to “We’re leaving tomorrow” in just one day
You are now witnessing a remarkably fast process of a Russian woman coming to terms with reality. It took just 24 hours.
She is now packing her bags and preparing to leave with her daughters.
Her husband, however, is still being held back by a boat, a house, and various movable and immovable possessions. Even his wife's requests to “use his brain” have so far had little effect.
“I understand that this could all end very badly. And since, thank God, I still have a choice, I choose to leave,” she explained.
Tourists had been flowing into Crimea until the past couple of weeks, as it is advertised as a paradise. It's where people send their kids to camp, and Russians go to the beach.
The camps are closed, the tourists are fleeing, and even residents are packing up to leave. All the fuel is for the military, and supplies are low.
"Ukraine Can Destroy the Crimean Bridge, but There's a Reason It Hasn't."
— Olena Rohoza (@OlenaRohoza) June 26, 2026
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are sending a message to Russian troops.
The Crimean Bridge has not yet been destroyed in order to allow both civilians and Russian military personnel to leave Crimea, avoiding… pic.twitter.com/1uIPleQTnx
"Ukraine Can Destroy the Crimean Bridge, but There's a Reason It Hasn't."
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are sending a message to Russian troops.
The Crimean Bridge has not yet been destroyed in order to allow both civilians and Russian military personnel to leave Crimea, avoiding the need to hunt down Russian soldiers in the peninsula's mountains. This was stated by military analyst Kyrylo Sazonov during an appearance on News Factory.
"That's why it hasn't been struck again. Besides, the bridge is already partially disabled after previous attacks. Traffic is restricted, and several limitations are already in place. I believe it has been left standing so they can leave rather than be trapped on the peninsula. Above all, we want civilians to get out instead of remaining there," he said.
According to Sazonov, Ukraine is also interested in allowing Russian troops to withdraw, since tracking them down in Crimea's mountainous terrain could become a long and difficult operation.
"So it's better to let them leave. I think that's exactly why the bridge has been left standing—for now. After all, we are fully capable of destroying it," he added.
It's not that Ukraine is about to invade Crimea. That would be stupid and horrifically bloody. And Putin isn't about to evacuate his military, given that he planted his flag in Crimea over a decade ago, and it would light his own funeral pyre.
History shows that militaries can hold out for YEARS under the most brutal conditions, using very limited supply lines, and grind each other into dust. That is a losing proposition, especially given that Ukraine is taking only one casualty for every 2-3 that Russia does right now.
🇺🇦🇷🇺 Crimea declared a state of emergency today
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) June 26, 2026
No civilian fuel sales since June 21, tourism suspended until September, train routes cut in half, 2,000 vehicles waiting 5 hours to cross into Russia, hotel bookings down 88%.
Ukraine's stated goal: isolate Crimea from Russia… https://t.co/2dtyHwzGrj pic.twitter.com/Iw3JcF9Y4z
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia's hawks want Putin to go nuclear
The loudest pressure on the Kremlin right now is coming from its own side.
After a month of Ukrainian drones hitting Moscow, St Petersburg, Crimea and an oil refinery inside Moscow itself, the nationalist wing has decided the war is being fought far too softly, and that a U.S. promise to end it on Russia's terms never showed up.
So now the demands are out loud. Full mobilisation, levelling Kyiv's government district, killing Zelensky, bombing the European plants that build Ukraine's drones, and at the far end, reaching for tactical nukes.
The one saying it plainest is Konstantin Malofeyev, a hardline tycoon who bankrolls much of this nationalist scene.
"Why are we not using nuclear weapons, which our forebears developed and stockpiled with the full might of the nation precisely for this purpose?"
For now, the only thing holding all of it back is Putin himself.
Better to slowly strangle Russia and undermine Putin's political position, as he pulls his air defenses back to Moscow and St Petersburg, leaving the front and Crimea even more exposed.
Putin has been blustering about using nuclear weapons for years now, and clearly, his right flank is agitating for something to be done. It's hard to discern whether this is authorized saber-rattling to brush back the European support for Ukraine, or genuine sentiment from his allies.
In Moscow, an air defense system was installed directly on a residential building
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 26, 2026
The footage shows a helicopter with a Pantsir air defense system suspended on cables hovering over the residential complex “Avenue 77” — the tallest building in the Chertanovo district of Moscow. A… pic.twitter.com/knQSDqwtwz
Putin is doing his own saber-rattling, sending signals by flying nuclear bombers all the way to the UK. But it's hard to believe that Putin would break that taboo. Even Putin doesn't want World War III. And nukes have no tactical value, anyway. You don't take or hold territories by dropping nukes.
Ukrainian long-drones have struck
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) June 26, 2026
the Novomoskovsk power plant in the Tula region 200 km south of Moscow.
This video shows the moment power went out in the city of 122 000 inhabitants. pic.twitter.com/gpQMof9UuQ
We are long since past the time that Russia can claim that any benefits it might get from this war will exceed the massive costs. What is bringing that home, though, is that the costs are no longer being paid in blood far away, or in treasure due to inflation. Now people see the costs directly, as fuel supplies dry up, and refineries and industrial facilities blow up down the street.
🇷🇺 Fuel crisis spreads to Moscow region.
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) June 26, 2026
Deputy PM Alexander Novak says Russia has enough reserves, but short-term diesel export bans are being considered.
Source: TASS / Writer: Samuelpic.twitter.com/9rpgLM3L5s
Autocrats are invulnerable until the very moment they are not. It's rare that they fall out of power, and extremely dangerous for everybody when they are threatened. This is why Putin has survived this fiasco so far.
JUST IN: The U.S. has reimposed oil sanctions on Russia after several months of suspending them during the Iran war. pic.twitter.com/HyueKbrzg0
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) June 26, 2026
But he's costing his allies big time. They are unhappy with how the war is going. They have great lives, but they are kings only in Russia now, as they are pariahs, and Russia is turning sour for everybody. Putin lives in a bunker, rarely coming out, and oligarchs are only held back by very justified fears.
A woman in Russia's city of Irkutsk says that "chaos has broken out" explains how the fuel crisis has shut down the city and that her company will be destroyed because no basic functions can no occur.
— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) June 26, 2026
She begs the government to save her. pic.twitter.com/IyALYZi6Yu
The tension is ramping up. That doesn't mean Putin is doomed, any time soon. But his position is getting ever more precarious.
Wars have rhythms, and it may be that Russia can find some way to turn the tide. But it is hampered by a system that is so corrupt, so incapable of rapid innovation, and so indifferent to the welfare of its soldiers that it's hard to see how.
Striking civilians in Kyiv will not turn the tide. They have been doing that for four years. Something has got to break sometime, and it looks more likely that it will be Russia's resolve than Ukraine's.
For now, Ukraine has the upper hand.
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