Will Hamas release the hostages on Donald Trump's timeline? Will they opt for more Hamas Hokey Pokey instead, after first agreeing to Trump's terms? I know which way I'm betting, but Trump offered a more optimistic view last night ... along with a warning:
The warning about "massive bloodshed" managed to get Hamas off the scheid when they realized Trump meant his previous ultimatum to be taken both literally and seriously. The strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities may have helped clear up any misunderstandings on that point. The encirclement of Gaza City by the IDF undoubtedly contributed to that clarity as well.
However, it does appear that Hamas wants to once again put a concession in, take a concession out, demand a concession be put in, shake it all about. A Hamas leader in Tehran has now demanded a complete inversion of the plan, one in which Hamas keeps the hostages until the very end of the process:
Hamas official in Tehran: “Our red lines include a ceasefire, complete withdrawal of occupation forces from Gaza, opening of crossings, humanitarian aid access, and rebuilding the Strip. After achieving these objectives, we will pursue political solutions and prisoner swaps.” -…
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) October 6, 2025
Adolf Hitler's 'red lines' in April 1945 included Poland, Czechoslovakia, and reparations for Berlin, too. How did that work out for him?
Anyway. Negotiators are already on the way to Sharm el-Sheikh, and Benjamin Netanyahu has his strongest domestic political position in months to cut a deal for the hostages. Hamas apparently knows this, and everyone expects to hear some hokey polka music in the Sinai Peninsula this week:
A delegation of Hamas officials led by the terror group’s leader Khalil al-Hayya arrived in Egypt on Sunday night to begin negotiations on Washington’s plan to end the war in the Gaza Strip and free all 48 remaining hostages — at least 20 of them alive — as US President Donald Trump implored all parties to move fast toward an agreement.
Israel’s delegation also departed for Sharm El-Sheikh on Sunday night, even as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was still attempting to keep his right-wing coalition allies on board with Trump’s ambitious 20-point plan and prevent them from jumping ship and bringing down his coalition. Still, opposition leader Yair Lapid has promised Netanyahu a “safety net” to prevent his government from falling in any Knesset vote as a consequence of the prime minister advancing the deal.
Disapproval within Netanyahu’s coalition is not the only obstacle to reaching an agreement: Hamas has said it is prepared to release the hostages it is holding, subject to certain conditions, but is expected to make additional demands, including as regards the Israeli military’s withdrawal from the Strip and the release of Palestinian security prisoners in exchange for the hostages.
"Is expected to make additional demands" is about the safest prediction anyone can make about Hamas. They agree to conditions, and then renege while demanding concessions to get back to the original agreement. That's the Hamas Hokey Pokey, and they have used it successfully for 20 years. That's why so many of us wondered why Trump accepted Hamas' initial 'acceptance' at face value.
Since then, Trump has made clear that he hadn't. He's using it as a potential moment to get the hostages out, but his messaging since makes clear that he's not going to dance for Hamas, either. The "first phase" Trump demands is the exchange for the hostages, and if Hamas refuses to swap them up front, Trump is saying that he will reject the deal and let Israel take care of the problem. Whether he follows through is the big question, but again, Trump made his point pretty plainly with Iran in June. He doesn't draw red lines and then reconsider them.
Today's message is another warning about "red lines." He only cares about his own, not Hamas'. If they try to play him again, Trump is making it clear that they will not like the result. Let's hope Trump is as committed to that as he was to destroying the nuclear threat from Iran.
Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.
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