What does a ceasefire with Hamas look like? Over the last twenty years, it has generally followed the Wayne's World street hockey model. The IDF stands by until Hamas yells game on, at which point the nets -- and the goalposts -- move until Hamas runs into an obstacle and wants to regroup:
Ever since the hostages got released, Hamas has tried testing the IDF's resolve. They want to either kill or capture Israeli soldiers for further leverage, or want to push Israel into further concessions by making it look as though the IDF has violated the ceasefire agreement. That has worked to some extent in the past, but when Hamas tried it out this weekend, the IDF was prepared to make them pay:
Israel’s military said it fired toward militants inside an area of Gaza under its control, yet another flare-up of violence that has threatened to derail the fragile cease-fire with Hamas.
Israel said there were two separate incidents on Monday in which its troops fired toward people who crossed the so-called yellow line, the boundary inside Gaza to which Israel withdrew under the terms of the truce. It said the people approached Israeli troops, who then acted to remove the threat. ...
Monday’s clash follows a major escalation a day earlier, when Israel launched dozens of strikes across Gaza in response to a series of attacks by militants. One attack in southern Gaza killed two Israeli soldiers and severely injured another, the Israeli military said. Two other attempts were made to attack Israeli troops elsewhere in the enclave, it added.
Hamas offered its usual excuse. It wasn't us, it was the one-armed terrorists!
Hamas denied involvement in the Sunday attacks and suggested they were carried out by rogue militants in the south that it lost contact with months ago, reiterating its support for the cease-fire.
Ahem. First off, this is the same excuse that Hamas uses in every post-ceasefire period. They used this a lot after the short war they started in 2014, and which the Obama administration froze by pushing Israel into a ceasefire. It's a handy excuse, but it won't fly, in large part because Hamas has basically slaughtered any other competing terror groups in Gaza that don't take orders from their command. Also, Hamas keeps arguing that it is the only legit authority in Gaza while demanding that Israel and the world respect that. The game off/game on model seems to be at work here, too.
After blasting Hamas positions all day, Israel also decided to play the same game back at Hamas:
The IDF announced the resumption of the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip on Sunday evening after a deadly attack on troops in the southern Gaza Strip in the morning, and a subsequent wave of retaliatory Israeli strikes had threatened to shatter the fragile truce. ...
Israel’s announcement that it would return to upholding the truce came after the military carried out strikes against 20 targets in Gaza, which the Hamas-run civil defense agency said killed 45 people, although the figures could not be verified and did not differentiate between civilians and combatants.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held consultations with Defense Minister Israel Katz and other senior security officials in the wake of the deadly attack on troops in Rafah, and decided that Israel would respond “fiercely” to the incident, while still maintaining the necessary momentum to secure the return of the remaining slain hostages from Gaza under the first phase of Washington’s ceasefire framework, Channel 12 reported.
“Israel does not want to bring about the collapse of the ceasefire… There is simply a straightforward equation of a violation and a response — and this will continue as long as Hamas keeps violating the agreement,” a security official told the network[.]
The Trump team reportedly tried to keep everyone in line and asked Israel to wrap up its response quickly. How accurate are those reports? I suspect that, despite Donald Trump's public comments, he'd prefer to see this work out without more violence. However, the problem at the root of this is the same problem that has plagued this conflict for 20 years -- Hamas will not give up its plans for the annihilation of Israel, and will not disarm ever. At some point, Trump's push will have to meet Hamas' shove, and the Israelis will have to settle it themselves.
The New York Times wrings its hands over the fragility of this so-called truce:
Ten days into a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, relief is giving way to grim acknowledgments of the truce’s tenuousness, and of the need for continued outside intervention to keep it alive, let alone to make further progress.
A new round of violence on Sunday showed just how arduous the road to a broader agreement in Gaza will be between the two sides, which have repeatedly accused each other of violating the truce.
Plus ça change, plus c'est la meme chose. The "arduous" nature of the road has not changed in 20 years, because the irreconcilable conflict between Hamas and Israel has not changed. If Hamas will not disarm, then there will not be peace until they are fully destroyed. This pattern will repeat itself until Israel and the West find the determination to end this conflict fully -- with either a capitulation of Hamas and its ejection, or by utter conquest.
Netanyahu wants to keep all options open, but he's making it clear that he wants an end to this pattern. Hopefully, Trump will remain just as clear.
Netanyahu: "153 tons of bombs fell yesterday in Gaza in response to the ceasefire violation." pic.twitter.com/OcBTfZzCnX
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) October 20, 2025
Addendum (via Instapundit): Second look at the Washington Post?
Hell just froze over: @washingtonpost blames Hamas for death and suffering in Gaza. But months of denial by most of the world media gave Hamas cover, inverted cause and effect, and helped prolong the war. But don’t expect this honesty to become a trend. https://t.co/qbZGOfyStw pic.twitter.com/tBRPfeABUO
— Aizenberg (@Aizenberg55) October 20, 2025
Before the ink even dried on the latest ceasefire agreement, Hamas enforcers emerged from their underground dens, fresh-faced, well-fed and clad in clean uniforms. Hamas declared war on at least four Palestinian clans, several of which are thought to have been cooperating with Israel. Clips of Hamas commissars executing bound men in the middle of the street, or shooting suspected thieves in the legs, have circulated widely.
And that’s just what has been out in the open. On Saturday, the State Department warned that it has “credible reports” that Hamas is planning an attack on Palestinian civilians and warned that “measures will be taken to protect the people of Gaza and preserve the integrity of the ceasefire.” What that might look like remains unclear. Both Turkey and Qatar, other guarantors of the peace deal, envision a role for Hamas in a future Palestinian state. They are unlikely to want to confront it directly, even though the group stokes the fires of a Palestinian civil war.
All revolutions eventually consume themselves. Unfortunately for the miserable Palestinians of Gaza, Hamas is not quite yet in its final death throes.
To be fair, their editorial board has gotten more reality-based as Jeff Bezos and Will Lewis cleaned up its Augean stables. Their reporting and analyses have yet to catch up, but this is at least a sign that the future of the Post might be a rebirth of truth and honesty under its pretentious banner.
Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.
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