Did Abbas Araghchi really think through the implications of his statement today? The Iranian regime's foreign minister has sounded a lot more like the infamous Baghdad Bob over the last 30 hours or so of the war that Iran is losing ... badly. He insisted yesterday that Ali Khamenei had survived the strike on his compound long after it became obvious the 'Supreme Leader' had been killed, and also insisted that the initial strikes had only caused a couple of casualties among the top regime leadership.
Today, Araghchi attempted to bluster a threat that the regime still had full response capability, but instead admitted that the US and Israel had effectively decapitated both the IRGC and the political leadership:
Iranian FM Araghchi:
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 1, 2026
"Our military units are currently operating independently and in isolation, following previously issued general directives."
He's confirming the command chain is shattered.
To be fair, that can be dangerous, in the short run at least. Destroying command and control operations does not mean destroying offensive capacities. The ballistic missiles in the field are still being launched and are breaking through the ABM defense screens in the region. A hit in Beit Shemesh this morning killed nine Israelis, and Iran has scored more hits in places like Bahrain, Dubai, and even tried attacking British forces in Cyprus, which fell short.
The problem, however, is that the loss of command and control means that the Iranian regime can no longer operate in a coordinated and strategic fashion. If they cannot do that, the US and Israel can apply their own strategic and tactical coordination to do a lot more damage. Furthermore, militaries in regimes as tyrannical as Iran's rarely operate with much independence; the regimes are too worried about military rebellions to allow much flexibility and innovative thinking from lower-level officers. The US and other Western nations have serious advantages in their ability to allow subordinate units to have some operational freedom to adapt and overcome as the enemy changes tactics and positions. I seriously doubt that the Iranian theocrats in charge allow any such flexibility.
And when the conditions for those previously issued orders change, the units will be stuck with orders that no longer fit the battlefield in the moment, and no skill or experience at ad-libbing.
As Mike Pompeo told Fox News this morning, "multiple layers" of command vanished yesterday. The Iranians will have to scramble to reassemble their chains of command, but in the meantime, that gives us plenty of opportunity to isolate and destroy their capacity to fight effectively – and for the regime to remain upright:
“Multiple layers of leadership have vanished,” former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said, after strikes killed Ayatollah Khamenei and top Iranian officials. pic.twitter.com/8niK5z97c5
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 1, 2026
Right on cue, the target selections for Operation Epic Fury have centered even more directly on Tehran. Trump warned of worse to come if the Iranians keep escalating attacks on uninvolved nations:
Blasts in Tehran — whose target was not immediately clear — sent a huge plume of smoke into the sky in an area where there are government buildings. Iranian authorities say more than 200 people have been killed since the start of the U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed Khamenei and other senior leaders. Earlier, Iran fired missiles at an ever-widening list of targets in Israel and Gulf Arab states in retaliation. ...
“You have crossed our red line and must pay the price,” Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said in a televised address Sunday. “We will deliver such devastating blows that you yourselves will be driven to beg.”
Trump warned that any retaliation would only lead to further escalation.
“THEY BETTER NOT DO THAT,” Trump fired back in a social media post. “IF THEY DO, WE WILL HIT THEM WITH A FORCE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE!”
The Iranians had better consider that carefully. Just as in the Twelve Day War, the Iranians have no control over Tehran airspace, and not much control elsewhere either:
Having already dropped 1,200 bombs on Iran, the IDF, along with the US Air Force, is close to achieving air supremacy in Iranian airspace.
This shift could mark an increased capability for Israel and the US to help anti-regime protesters by targeting specific regime forces, including the Tharallah headquarters, which has been used to oppress and mass murder them for the last two months and during prior rounds of protests in recent decades.
In June 2025, it took several days for the air force to achieve such supremacy, which signifies that essentially Iran's anti-aircraft defenses have been so battered that Israeli aircraft and drones can hover over target areas for extended periods without worrying as much about whether air defenses might target them.
Once this is achieved, the ability of the air force to target a wider range of targets constantly exponentially increases.
Command and control functions are severed now, and when the US and Israel achieve full air supremacy in Iran, those won't come back. At some point, the units in the field with no contact from leadership will start experiencing morale collapses, and the entire structure will wither and evaporate. That may well have started already with the regime announcement of Khamenei's death, and the silence from the HQs will not help matters.
Update: This short video clip gives an indication of the scale and scope of the current sorties on Tehran:
Smoke over Tehran after wave of Israeli Air Force strikes. pic.twitter.com/d8rVJQSBAF
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 1, 2026
Update: Here's the video clip of Abbas' declaration.
You know Iran’s military chain of command is fucked when the Iranian FM himself says “our military units are now independent and somehow isolated” .
— S. Rifai (@THE_47th) March 1, 2026
US/Israel wiped off the entire regime leadership.
pic.twitter.com/7XMjQ5FSaK
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