Score one for Donald Trump, and maybe John Bolton too.
European leaders, including Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, flatly rejected Donald Trump's request to provide escort support for commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump responded by calling the US commitment to NATO's common defense into serious question, calling these countries "allies" in care quotes, and that the relationship had been proven a "one way street." Trump expanded on his remarks in a press avail at the White House, telling reporters that the Hormuz crisis was a "great test" of NATO's faithlessness.
Two days later, Europe has seemingly changed its tune:
NEW: UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, & Japan issue joint statement expressing “readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts” to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, welcoming nations engaging in prep/planning & coordinating SPR releases and ways to…
— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) March 19, 2026
The joint statement, published by the UK's Starmer government, appears to commit the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the Netherlands to participating in escorts through the Strait, emphasis mine:
Freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international law, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable.
Consistent with UNSC Resolution 2817, we emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations.
We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait. We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.
That may not be an ironclad, explicit commitment to send naval assets to the Strait. It does, however, contradict the explicit refusals earlier this week from Starmer, Macron, and Germany's Friedrich Merz. European leaders wasted little time in making it clear that they did not see the war with Iran as "theirs," and scoffed at Trump's attempts to get them involved after hostilities had already started.
It fell to John Bolton to warn these allies that this argument would backfire in a big way with Trump. He's already skeptical about how NATO and Europe have stuck the US with the war in Ukraine, and Europe may have just handed Trump a precedent for telling them to solve the issue themselves. Reciprocity is the key to any alliance, after all:
🚨 BOLTON WARNS EUROPE: THIS COULD BACKFIRE HARD
— Jim Ferguson (@JimFergusonUK) March 18, 2026
John Bolton has just laid out a consequence European leaders may not have fully thought through.
By dismissing Iran as “not our war”, Europe may be triggering something far bigger.
Because the response from Donald Trump is… pic.twitter.com/ns4hk0SqF9
Bolton’s warning cuts to the core of alliance politics:
You don’t get to pick when solidarity applies. Because once that precedent is set…
NATO cohesion fractures
Support for Ukraine becomes uncertain
And the entire Western alliance enters a new phase of transactional relationships
Europe may think it’s avoiding escalation. But in reality, it may be inviting a strategic reset — one that leaves it far more exposed than before.
The fact that it took these geniuses 48 hours to figure it out speaks to the fecklessness in current European leadership. At least they realized the error at this point, but that doesn't mean they will rush their naval assets to the Strait of Hormuz. Trump will likely keep up the pressure until they do, but that's not the only option he has at the moment, either. Whether the Europeans show up, the Marine Corps is on the way, and the Wall Street Journal lays out the options Trump will have when they arrive:
The addition of a Marine Expeditionary Unit provides Trump with additional options to pressure Tehran, according to the former and current U.S. officials.
Iran controls a number of small islands off its southern coast, which the regime uses to host oil infrastructure, base missiles and conceal boats in caves. The most economically significant of those is Kharg Island, positioned at the northern end of the Gulf roughly 300 miles from the strait that serves as Iran’s main oil export hub. Trump threatened Monday to strike the island’s oil pipelines, after a U.S. military attack last week destroyed key military facilities there.
Instead of destroying Kharg’s oil infrastructure, the Marines could seize the island so the U.S. could use it as leverage to reopen the strait, according to experts and former officials.
“Kharg Island, 90% of their oil comes through there. So you’ve got really two choices,” said retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, the former commander of U.S. Central Command. “You can destroy the oil infrastructure, which would give irrevocable damage to the Iranian economy and the global economy, or you could seize it to use as a bargaining chip, which doesn’t then permanently degrade the world economy.”
This has been the most obvious play for the US. It allows us to safeguard the export facility while controlling it, and provides us an enormous bargaining chip if and when negotiations take place. Kharg may not be the only target, too:
One strategic target could be Qeshm Island. Large and arrow-shaped, it sits at the mouth of the strait and hosts Iranian naval vessels and missiles in underground tunnels. It is also home to a large desalination plant, which Iran accused the U.S. of attacking. Its size and location allows Tehran to control the flow of ships in and out of the strait.
The Marines could also potentially be sent to seize Kish Island, a tiny economic hub west of Qeshm that hosts an airport, or rocky Hormuz Island, east of Qeshm, where Tehran docks small attack ships.
The EU may be concerned that the US will escalate in the Strait in ways that make their own energy supplies vulnerable, or perhaps at Trump's mercy as well as the IRGC's. If they want to prevent that, they'd better start participating in free commerce in the Gulf region, toute suite, and when needed rather than Macron's offer to escort ships only after any threats have ended.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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