Is this really a surprise attack? Or just another in a 47-year series from the mullahs and the IRGC?
Perhaps the timing surprised a few people, although those would have to be in Islamabad, Doha, and maybe Muscat. Otherwise, the ballistic missile attacks on American forces in Jordan are completely within character for Ahmad Vahidi and the rump IRGC regime in Tehran. CENTCOM called it an "attempted surprise attack," but also noted that US forces remain on high alert anyway:
At 5:45 p.m. ET today, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran in an attempted surprise attack on U.S. forces based in the Middle East. All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted. U.S. forces remain vigilant and at a high…
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 28, 2026
In other words, CENTCOM expects attacks like these. The US has plenty of systems to detect ballistic missile launches from pretty much anywhere in the world, but these days, attention falls on Iran particularly closely. The IRGC can't launch a true surprise attack because it lacks the infrastructure for it, at least directly. The war has destroyed Iran's blue-water navy and their air force, and their army can't transport itself to positions from which to launch ground attacks on US forces.
Iran does have militias in Iraq which could create trouble. The US and Saudis decided to surprise them last night, too:
The U.S. and Saudi militaries launched airstrikes late Tuesday on Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, U.S. Central Command said, after Iran and its proxies allegedly targeted American forces over the last few days.
The U.S.-Saudi operation was aimed at "terrorist logistics and weapons sites across eastern Iraq," CENTCOM said in a statement posted to social media. The Saudi Ministry of Defense also confirmed that it "conducted precise and targeted strikes," citing its right to self-defense.
The Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), an umbrella group of Iraqi paramilitary forces backed by Iran, said in a statement released Wednesday that at least 20 of its fighters were killed and 32 wounded. The group said its headquarters in Baghdad and six other locations were struck.
Speaking of Oman, the IRGC just snubbed them as well:
Iran has rejected an Omani proposal for an equal division of control over the Strait of Hormuz, insisting that it must have greater oversight of the strategic waterway, a key route for global oil shipments.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tehran turned down Oman’s proposed 50-50 arrangement, under which separate shipping lanes would be managed by Iran and Oman. He said the plan did not address Iran’s security concerns.
“Our proposal is for one route to lie entirely within the territorial waters of the Islamic Republic of Iran, with part of the other route also passing through Iranian territorial waters, so that Iran can effectively exercise oversight over both inbound and outbound traffic," Gharibabadi said.
In that sense, the ballistic missiles fired at Jordan were just the piece de résistance. It gives an answer to Trump about how seriously to take the Pakistanis, Qataris, and Omanis as interlocutors in this process. So do the attacks on three oil tankers that Iran announced this morning:
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards struck and halted three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency, which is linked to the Revolutionary Guards.
"Three violating oil tankers, which ignored our warnings and continued sailing an unsafe and illegal route, were struck and brought to a halt," the Tasnim News agency reported.
At the moment, it's not clear just how true this claim is. Assuming it's accurate, we can probably expect the current pause to end by sundown this evening in the Persian Gulf.
Why pull these moves now? The IRGC insists that they're winning this war, but they have no effective tactical or strategic capacity to fight against the US. Their only play is to use propaganda to convince the US and the region that further conflict will be useless against the IRGC. Some of this is bluster intended for domestic consumption, too; they cannot afford another major uprising and want to project confidence and power, even if they do not have it.
And one thing seems pretty clear by now as well: they think Trump won't actually pull the trigger on a "major escalation." Trump has threatened it several times, only to be talked out of it by the usual gang of idiots in the region who want him to cut a deal with the IRGC. Vahidi seems very confident that Trump is bluffing and just wants to find a way out, no matter what it costs the US or the region.
Is Vahidi right? Or is he teeing himself and his regime up for a very real and unpleasant surprise? He's about to find out:
Trump to Fox News, after Iran's surprise attack on U.S. forces: "We're going to beat the fuc*ing sh*t out of them. We'll be hitting them hard."
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) July 29, 2026
He says overnight U.S. strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq were coordinated with Baghdad.
On future talks with Iran: "We're going… pic.twitter.com/3LIly6G77W
Duane will have more on this later today, with a closer look at what may be forcing Vahidi's hand.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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