The good news from yesterday: A new deal to end the Hormuz crisis has emerged. The bad news from today: According to several reports, it's a new version of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), only this time a "deal on the sly" with Oman to let the IRGC control inbound traffic into the Persian Gulf.
Presumably, this won't fly with Donald Trump. Right? Almost certainly not. This appears to be a trial balloon from Iran, Oman, or both, filtered through international media. The Independent proposes that Trump will take the bait and "seize credit" for any deal that allows for a disengagement, including this "deal on the sly" between Tehran and Muscat:
Instead, Iranian officials have said they are negotiating specifically with Oman over Hormuz. The extent of US involvement in these talks is unclear, but experts tell The Independent Trump is likely to seize the credit for any impending deal either way.
“Oman will not act alone and independently. Whilst they hold on the pen on this issue, they will be co-ordinating with other Gulf partners and the US,” said Dr Neil Quilliam, professor on the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House.
The US, he says, may end up agreeing a settlement under which Iran is paid “service” fees which are disguised as environmental payments.
While Trump would likely claim credit for a deal and sell it as a success for Washington, it would ultimately be an embarrassment. The White House has repeatedly rejected Tehran’s demand that ships pay a toll to cross through the Strait.
That description apparently comes from Iranian sources, however. Axios reported late yesterday that the deal would not include fees, but would at least temporarily allow the IRGC some control of commercial traffic:
According to two regional sources, the deal under discussion sets up a 60-day temporary arrangement between Oman and Iran in the Hormuz strait, which could be extended.
- All inbound traffic of ships through the strait and into the Gulf would go in a northern lane through Iranian waters.
- All outbound traffic through the strait and into the Arabian Sea would go in a southern lane through Omani waters, in coordination with Iran.
- No tolls or fees would be charged during the 60-day period.
- The parties would work on clearing naval mines from the median lane of the strait within 30 days.
- After the median lane is cleared, it would be used for inbound and outbound traffic under the terms of a permanent arrangement to be negotiated between Oman and Iran.
The Associated Press asked Trump yesterday on his way to a fundraiser in Southern California about the prospects for the deal reported by Axios. Trump emphasized that the deal could come quickly, perhaps as soon as today:
The U.S. president was asked by reporters traveling with him in California about a report on the Axios news site that an announcement on the Strait of Hormuz could be made on Wednesday.
“It could happen. Tomorrow or the next day,” he said, speaking Tuesday evening California time. “A lot of progress has been made.”
Is that "progress," however? Yesterday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared that the Strait of Hormuz was already open under the protection of the US Navy. He also emphasized that neither Iran nor Oman has any legitimate claim to policing international waters:
Baghaei, Ajorlu and every other Iranian official insist the legal regime at the strait will not return to its pre-war state, when no country controlled shipping through the critical waterway.
Control or supervision over the chokepoint has become just as much a red line for Tehran as the right to nuclear enrichment.
The prospect of such leverage is unacceptable in Washington, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has repeatedly said any form of state control over international waters is against international law.
“If we create a precedent in the Middle East where a nation state can decide that they are going to control an international waterway,” he said recently, “charge a toll and if you don’t pay them blow up your ships, we have created a very dangerous precedent, which will repeat itself in other parts of the world,” he said last month.
It would be impossible to square Rubio's statement yesterday with the language from either reported proposal. The Axios report might be closer to reality only because of the minesweeping that still has to take place in the international "lane"; it would be easier to have Iran clear those mines than for the US Navy to conduct the broader minesweeping activities required, especially while potentially under fire. The payments should be, and likely will be, a dealbreaker.
Of course, even this deal likely won't survive long with the IRGC. Axios points out the folly of signing deals with terrorists:
The White House, Oman and regional mediators thought they had a deal with Iran three weeks ago, only to see Iran resume attacks on ships. That led to two weeks of fighting and almost an all-out war.
Even if this gets to the signature stage, expect the same outcome. The IRGC seems convinced that Trump won't follow through on his threats to engage in full-scale infrastructure destruction, and at this point, it's not difficult to see why. The two-week return to tactical kinetic actions did demonstrate that Trump will use force to get the Iranians to the table, but the lack of true strategic campaigning allows the regime to believe that their threats to other Gulf states will allow them to survive. That's not on Trump as much as it is on the feckless Gulf states that keep insisting on deals with terrorists.
Whatever comes out of this process is not likely to survive long, however. That's both the bad news and the good news from MOU II: Lucy-Football Boogaloo.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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