James Talarico's lips say no no no, but his allies say yes.
Yesterday, Donald Trump and Talarico held dueling rallies in Lubbock, Texas, as both Republicans and Democrats try to close the sale in the Lone Star State. That proximity raised the profile of both events and invited the inevitable comparisons on crowd size. Newsweek reported that Trump got the edge in the conservative region of Texas, but Talarico drew a large crowd too:
Talarico shared an image that showed a packed venue, writing: "Lubbock County voted for President Trump by 40 points. Tonight 4,000 people showed up at our rally. Texans are ready for change."
It wasn't immediately clear if Talarico's figure includes supporters who were turned away after the venue was filled. The venue’s ballroom accommodates up to 2,600 people, and KAMC reporter Jen Phillips reported that officials were planning to stretch capacity to 3,000. The Texas Tribune reported that the line for the event spanned several city blocks.
Meanwhile, Trump and Paxton appeared for a rally at the Lubbock Memorial Civic Center, with a reporter for The Amarillo Tribune estimating the arena was full with around 4,000 attendees. The center’s exhibit hall is listed as having a maximum capacity of 4,914. ...
While the estimates indicate that Trump's rally may have drawn a larger crowd, the turnout for Talarico was notable given Lubbock County is a longtime Republican stronghold and the president was campaigning for his opponent at the same time.
As Newsweek points out, Trump won the Lubbock area by 40 points two years ago. Talarico's turnout in a deep-red part of Texas is notable.
And because it's notable, so too is the rhetoric platformed by Talarico and his campaign at the rally. Fox News reports that Talarico's opening act revved the crowd up with two far-Left demands from which Talarico himself has attempted to distance himself. This not only speaks to Talarico's true agenda, it also tends to rebut the value of the turnout as an indication of crossover support for Talarico:
Malik Williams, a Democratic candidate for a seat in Texas' state legislature, called for abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and for legalizing marijuana during a Tuesday rally for U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico in Lubbock, Texas.
"We can legalize and tax THC and cannabis. We're gonna abolish ICE, we're gonna tax the rich and we're going to get my friend, the next United States Senator from the state of Texas, James Talarico, elected!" Williams exclaimed to raucous applause.
Talarico, a Democrat running in a historically Republican state, has shied away from making such direct calls to abolish ICE while on the campaign trail.
As Fox News also points out, Talarico denied that he would support abolishing ICE if elected to the Senate at a recent CNN town hall. However, he had a much different position when running against Jasmine Crockett in the Democrat primary:
Talarico's recent remarks, however, depart from past comments. In January, during a primary debate with Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Tex., Talarico said it was time to "tear down" ICE.
"ICE shot a mother in the face. ICE kidnapped a 5-year-old boy. ICE executed a man in broad daylight on our streets just this morning. It's time to tear down this secret police force and replace it with an agency that actually is going to focus on public safety," he said.
Talarico also advocated for "hauling in" agents in front of Congress to testify on actions taken during enforcement actions.
So which Talarico is running for office? The one who wanted to "tear down this secret police force" in January, the one who told a CNN audience he just wants some changes to ICE, or the Talarico who had a surrogate fire up the crowd with a cry to "abolish ICE"? Make no mistake about distance on this point, either. Even if Williams wins his election, a Texas state legislator has exactly zero power to do anything about ICE within the jurisdiction of his office. Williams promised the crowd that Talarico would deliver on abolishing ICE – and they loved it.
This underscores the nature of Talarico's rally. This does not represent the vast majority of Texas voters, who have demanded an end to lax border security and immigration enforcement for years. If this promise to abolish ICE – and to legalize weed, for that matter – got such a robust response, then we can pretty much assume that this crowd represents the fringe of Texas politics, not its mainstream.
Expect to see this come up in ads in the final stretch, if the NRSC, GOP, and its super-PAC allies are paying attention. With just five days to go, they'd better get it clipped fast and slotted for TV spots ASAP.
Speaking of Texas and the vote, Duane has been doing yeoman's work on early in-person voting. As of this morning in Texas, On Point Politics reports that the news is better for Democrats thus far, but only to a point. The early vote is nearly 13 points bluer than two years ago, a significant concern for the GOP and especially Ken Paxton, although that's a modeled result since Texas does not report party affiliation on registrations and everyone uses the same ballot in general elections.
Even with that in mind, though, OPP's model show the GOP up eight points in early voting, 42/34, with all other affiliations accounting for 24% of the vote. That's fairly close to the 2022 exit poll in which Greg Abbott beat Beto O'Rourke by 11 points, with a D/R/I split of 30/41/29. Republicans tend to turn out heavier on Election Day too, which suggests that this may well be a relatively normal turnout model for the midterms, and maybe better than the 26/38/36 in 2024's presidential election. I'm cautiously optimistic, and might be even less cautious about that optimism if Republicans hammer Talarico's rally messaging in the final days.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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