There is anecdotal data wherever you look, and as the saying goes, anecdotal evidence is only evidence of anecdotes. If one is a Republican and predisposed to swallowing the black pill, ther are plenty of data snapshots and psyop propaganda out there to help the pill go down easier. If you are an optimist about the future, even in a historically bad cycle for the party in power with two years to go in a presidency, there are more than a few signs that indicate polling might be far more broken than previously realized.
With early voting, either absentee or in-person and mail-in balloting now a feature in American elections and not a bug, if anyone tells you outright that X, Y, and Z will happen, they're not telling you the truth. The reality is that there are enough variables in play this cycle that make comparisons to previous cycles very hard and conclusions about future results even harder.
Earlier this year, Brendan Fraser starred as General Dwight D. Eisenhower in a delightful movie called "Pressure". The premise, based on a true story, was about when to launch the D-Day invasion on the beaches of France. Tidal flows, the Moon cycle, troop readiness, trickery, deception, and decoys pointing the Nazis in a different direction were all factors in date selection for the invasion, and time was running out to make that decision. The bottom line on the go or no-go order came down to whether the weather, always unpredictable in the North Atlantic, would cooperate or make the most daring military amphibious landing in history impossible.
One of Ike's trusted advisors relied solely on almanac data — history. He pulled hundreds of charts of what the weather was on a certain day every year in recorded history and based his guess on how this year would turn out on all that past history. The Brits sent in a weatherman that didn't have all the fancy toys today's weather services have with satellites and computers. Back then, they had weather balloons, wind readings, and human intelligence feeding back telemetry as fast as possible. From that actual data, the Brits called their shot that the original proposed launch day would be heavy rain and wind and would be a disaster for Allied forces.
The point is that history can tell you a lot of things. It doesn't always predict the future accurately, because other factors and data that were not in play previously can alter the outcome in the current year. That's what this cycle is beginning to feel like.
In 1986, 2006, and 2014, the last three midterm cycles at the six-year mark of a two-term presidency, each president, Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama respectively, did campaign for their party in the fall. Reagan was the only one that did anything resembling the quantity of rallies Donald Trump has been holding the last couple weeks, but they were smaller in size and fewer in number. Bush mostly contained himself to giving smaller fundraising speeches and dinners, and Barack Obama pared down significantly the rallies he held four years earlier in 2010. Bottom line is all three lost control of the Senate for their efforts.
By comparison, Donald Trump is filling large venues, demonstrating his staying power with the vast majority of his MAGA base has not eroded one bit. In San Antonio last night, Trump put up the video on the big screen of Harry Enten on CNN admitting that MAGA support, compared to his 2024 re-elect against Kamala Harris, was as strong as ever.
President Trump put it on the screen for everyone to see. First, the CNN chart: 98–99% approval. Then the Harry Enten clip. The President Republicans most admire is Donald Trump, 53%. Reagan, 18%. Lincoln, 8%. Six to seven times Lincoln. CNN had to say it. The crowd LOVED it, because MAGA LOVES TO WIN. 🏆 POTUS: "The fake news media is trying to demoralize Republican voters with bad journalism and rigged polls, all sorts of things. But as you can see here tonight, look, you have thousands of people outside. As you can see, those big jumbotrons are working full speed. This movement is maybe stronger than ever. And now what we have to do is come out and vote. We’re going to show you a chart that just came up from CNN. Just look at this. Can you believe that CNN did that? Whoever did that chart is going to get fired tomorrow. So we’re at 98, 99 percent. We’re getting approval numbers that are phenomenal. The real numbers are phenomenal. If we ran against any of their candidates, we’d win by 25, 30 points. They don’t have any candidates. Their candidates are terrible. But we have a different thing. We have to get our candidates elected in Texas. That’s more important. And we’re going to be able to do that." 🔥🔥
— JJ🕊️ (@jesseyjay94) October 8, 2026
Trump is still a political black swan event. He generates more enthusiastic voters for him than anyone in our lifetime. He also generates turnout against him. But in a turnout election like a midterm, the key to winning is getting your base juiced up and pulling the lever for Republicans even when you're not on the ballot. By the size and number of rallies scheduled through the first Monday in November, Trump will reach more voters in contested states than anything Democrats can do on TV or stage.
By comparison, part of the reason the Democrats are not converting on what should otherwise be the most favorable tailwind they've had since Obama's re-elect in 2012 is the engine motivating their base to turnout — progressive young people. That engine seems to have thrown a rod through the block nearing the end of the race.
Hasan Piker, who months ago was on top of the world when Zohran Mamdani captured Gracie Mansion in New York City, and rode the campaign van alongside his bestie, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan's Senate primary, appears to be not just crashing out online, but crashing back to Earth in popularity. He appeared at an event at the University of Texas, Austin. In the Lone Star state, if you're Piker and you want to juice up young, progressive peeps, this venue is Mecca. According to Piker's camp, they were worried the hall he was to speak in would be nowhere near big enough to handle the 3,000-plus people they claim RSVP'd.
Hasan Piker revealed that the event organizers for his event at UT Austin told him that 3,000 people registered to attend his appearance at the university. It's three times the amount of people who attended Bernie Sanders' event at the university. 🤍 https://t.co/iro8MDJp2j
— adri ♡ (@socialistadri) September 30, 2026
Bernie drew a thousand, more or less, and the hall Piker appeared in sat a little over 400. And he didn't even fill that.
Hasan Piker was invited to do a speech at a University Thousands were expected to attend and only 300 showed up https://t.co/2nlXVEuAHd
— DSA Watch (@DSA_Watch) October 2, 2026
This was Trump's rally in San Antonio last night.
CNN just admitted that Trump’s rally in San Antonio is completely packed and that Texas is still very much RED. YIKES. That must’ve been hard to say. 😂 https://t.co/FzJ1EZT8QI
— Gina Milan (@ginamilan_) October 8, 2026
Turning Point USA at the same University of Texas, Austin drew a larger crowd last night.
MASSIVE crowds at Turning Point USA’s event at the University of Texas tonight! Thousands showed up to hear Brandon Gill, Ben Shapiro, and Jeff Metcalf speak! TPUSA is NOT backing down on college campuses across this country. The tour continues, and the movement is only getting stronger!
— Mikey McCoy (@Michael_McCoyy) October 8, 2026
James Talarico has disappeared from the campaign trail entirely for the better part of the last two weeks, which is not an encouraging show of strength. Candidates with double digit leads can get away with that, but in no sane world can a Talarico pollster claim he's got a lead anywhere near that.
Another metric that makes you think this election might not be like others before it is the overall slate of candidates fielded by the Republicans versus the Democrats. In Texas, Ken Paxton is the most flawed Republican running for Senate nationally, and yet he's got three statewide election wins under his belt. Literally all the Democrats had to do to mount a serious challenge against him was to run a normie. And they couldn't do that much. They're running a "Christian" who doesn't believe any of the tenets of the faith at all. Their guy is a walking amalgam of previous statements and positions that would cause any reputable campaign manager to take up day drinking. One of his recent campaign ads is the Talarico version of Christine O'Donnell's classic 'I am not a witch' ad in the 2010 Delaware Senate midterm. Nothing about Talarico down the stretch should make Democrats nationally comfortable.
Whether it's El-Sayed in Michigan, or Egypt, being he represents both in citizenship, Troy Jackson, who has breathed too much exhaust from his Evinrude outboard and is a little slow, Peggy Flanagan, who never met a corrupt Somali to which she didn't pander, or Angie Nixon in Florida, who AI could not invent as the most ideal Florida Democrat Republicans could run against, this is an awful slate of candidates attempting to run serious campaigns.
Susan Collins, Mike Rogers, Jon Husted, Mike Collins, Michael Whatley, Pete Ricketts, all these people are normal people that resonate with voters in their state on both sides of the aisle. And then there's the money angle.
In 2014, Republicans spent slightly more of the $811 million in that midterm cycle than Democrats. They had the advantage, but only just so. Republicans won the House majority and expanded their numbers in the Senate. In 2018, Democrats spent $2.5 billion versus the Republicans' $2.2 billion, with outside groups chipping in another billion or so that heavily favored Democrats. You'll be surprised to learn that Democrats won the House. And in 2022, Democrats outspent Republicans, $4.2 billion to $4 billion. Democrats held the Senate but narrowly lost the House.
This cycle, the RNC has $103 million more on hand than the DNC, who are in debt. Ad buys favor the Republicans to date by over $200 million, and by the time you add in the PAC money, over $11.6 billion is what's gone into this cycle, with Republicans taking the lion's share of that pot, 52-41 percent. It's the biggest money advantage for Republicans in decades, and could all by itself reverse the historical trend of the six-year blues for the party in power.
In Texas alone, the money mismatch down the stretch is staggering.
CNN: Republicans are heavily outspending Democrats in the Texas Senate Race Texas Senate Spending Sept Onward: 🔴 Republicans: $167 million 🔵 Democrats: $6 million https://t.co/3hDd8zskK7
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 5, 2026
It's one thing to run a campaign against the party in power, but usually, a candidate or party has to give their voters a reason to vote for them, not just against the other person. In the Democrats' case, they're as historically unpopular now as they've been in several cycles. In 2014, Democrats had a 42 percent approval rating, 44 percent in 2018, and dropped to 39 percent in 2022 when they lost the House. They're lower than that right now, depending on the poll. As my friend, Jim Talent, former Missouri senator says, "You can't beat something with nothing." Democrats are still selling what people aren't buying. They're still taking the 20 percent side of 80-20 issues, because Donald Trump has staked out the more popular end of the ratio.
One of the variables not being discussed much is what the electorate is even going to look like. Since the beginning of Donald Trump's second term, almost three million people here illegally have either self-deported or were physically removed by the government. I'm not saying all of them voted illegally in prior elections. I'm not even saying a lot of them did. I am saying that just instinctively, you know some of them voted. In California alone, with motor voter laws and criminal prosecution if you check or show ID at the ballot box, some fraud does happen. How much? I'll let you figure that out. But some percent of those people no longer here used to vote, and no longer are in the country to do so. Add that to the millions upon millions that have been purged from voter rolls, sometimes after several rounds in court. Whether it be dead people, folks who have moved, or ineligible voters for any number of other legal reasons, the pool of available shenanigans Democrats once had to steer an election their direction is smaller.
What has replaced a lot of those voters? New registered voters. And in that department, in virtually every swing state since Donald Trump was inaugurated, Republicans have out-hustled Democrats by registering more new people.
Should note the GOP is in its best position on party registration (i.e. not polls) going into a midterm in 20+ years. In total, the Dems have not gained ground since 2024 in key swing states (AZ, NV, NC, or PA). The GOP has gained big ground since Trump's 1st midterm in all 4. https://t.co/KXK7zc5dFY
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 7, 2026
You know what's in most of those swing states? Swing Congressional districts. If there are more Republicans than Democrats going into November, and the new Republicans are by definition more likely to vote because they took the time to register, that could easily counterweigh the six-year itch.
I could go on all day about polling misses, and how virtually every time they're off, and they almost always are, the error is in the Democrats' direction. To me, all you need to know about the polling this cycle and how broken it is, look back just a few months ago at the Michigan Senate primary between El-Sayed and Haley Stevens. Real Clear Politics' average, meaning the previous five polls, had El-Sayed over Stevens by 10.2 percent. The final margin was El-Sayed by one point. And that's polling of a smaller subset of all Michigan voters. They blew it massively polling only Democrats. And today, we're supposed to believe that these same pollsters have got the general between El-Sayed and Mike Rogers all dialed in, and AES is up a point? And not only that, 99 percent of the Democrats have come home behind the guy who couldn't get half of Michigan Democrats to support him against Mrs. Kravitz? Please.
Georgia's Senate race is all but lost, polling says. The question is, is it?
Something's up in Georgia. Since my first chart, mail requests grew 6.3% in Trump-won counties vs 3.5% in Harris-won counties. Harris counties' share slipped from 56.5% to 55.8%. https://t.co/QKvrpUv1Ph
— petebray (@petebray) October 7, 2026
It's early, but Republican requests for mail-in ballots in counties Kamala Harris won are double what Democrat voters are asking.
In Michigan, Republicans are outpacing Democrats in mail returns.
Michigan is bucking conventional wisdom. Mail returns keep tilting toward Trump country: Trump-won counties' share climbed from 45.3% yesterday to 46.0% today. They had 43.4% at the four-week mark in 2022. https://t.co/2Ule3hiYtH
— petebray (@petebray) October 8, 2026
Again, very early data. But it's actual data, not polling. In Ohio, where in-person early voting has begun, the Democrats had a good first day. Many voices online extrapolated that first day data as a sign that the Buckeye State would flip its Senate seat.
And then, day two numbers came in.
Athens county, Harris won the early vote by like 25 there, which got Lib ET in a tizzy yesterday) also did the same thing today but more importantly collapsed in turnout. If it keeps up it’s heading down towards the 45% range too https://t.co/qrCbyWGTbB
— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) October 7, 2026
Republican voting held steady into day two in Democratic Ohio counties. The fall-off of Democrats from the first day to the second was very noticeable. Could it be a two-day anomaly and Democrats will eventually swamp the early vote? Sure. It's possible. It could also be a trend that young progressive voters Democrats are relying on are responding the same way they did in Austin for Hasan Piker. Here's another example.
As another example. Here’s Shelby, a dark red county Trump won by 63 points net. Data here cuts off at 3pm so total vote is about the same. Notice anything? It’s a 18% red shift from day 1 to 2. This will occur in *all counties* every day as the Superdems exhaust https://t.co/Q3VRbcRPl9
— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) October 7, 2026
And another.
Exact same thing in Miami county as Dems exhaust themselves https://t.co/QPKLa0RJmy
— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) October 7, 2026
Latinx Adjacent Doctor on X has about a dozen of these, all with similar drop-off numbers for Democrats after the first day, while Republicans keep chugging along...in Democrat strongholds.
Another reliable X user who studies actual data, having watched early voting take place in Ohio for several cycles, sees a slower start this time around.
We don't have firm data yet, but having watched Democrats swamp early voting stations on Day 1 for many elections running ... it's just hilarious to see this happening in one of Ohio's most Democratic counties.
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) October 6, 2026
And as for those who are getting in line early and voting, take a gander at the overall look of them in Franklin County.
I'm sure the angry young people are going to swarm the polls on Election Day.
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) October 6, 2026
A couple women, no people of color, and no one who would get carded in a bar. If Democrats are counting on white men 30 and older to rack up their early voting bank, I'm here to tell you Ohio is not going to flip.
I promise I'm not huffing copium. I'm merely discarding the wishcasting on both sides, whether it be on the right saying this is the most important election of our lifetime, or on the left saying it's already over, it's a blue tsunami, and you might as well not bother voting. I could wake up the day after the election with Democrats winning the House and Senate and be very disappointed, but not terribly surprised. I'm ready to accept what Americans decide as to the direction of the country's legislative branch for the next two years.
But at the same time, that Spidey-sense I had in 2024 that Joe Biden wouldn't be the nominee when all was said and done, and that Spidey-sense also told me a couple months later Donald Trump, despite all odds, was going to win in 2024 and that it would not be particularly close, is giving me the same sensation that we may be in for another very long night of tears on the set of MS-Now the first Tuesday of November. What do you say? Will you do your part and join in the fun watching their meltdown?
Ronald Reagan's closing message in 1984 was pretty simple.
Ronald Reagan won 49 out of 50 states in the 1984 election following the airing of this ad. https://t.co/fAXDLOvyXa
— 🇺🇸 Based Americana 🇺🇸 (@basedamericana) July 27, 2026
The same question applies today as much as it did 42 years ago.
Why on Earth would we want to go back to where we were just two short years ago?
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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