And As for Iowa Falling ... Naaaaah.

Josh Turek could almost hear Hasan Piker's voice coming from the cornfields. "If you build the (expletive) thing, we will (expletive) come. 

Another sign of the forthcoming blue wave that's about to sweep American politics in a little under a week would be evidenced by the loss of Ashley Hinson to Turek and the socialist Democrats. And after the first couple days of in person early voting in Iowa, there were more than a few Republicans hitting the panic button. 

Real Clear Politics' average right now is Hinson up 0.6 percent, but Echelon just dropped a poll yesterday showing Turek up two. 

Echelon Insights poll | 10/16-10/23 LV US Senate Iowa 2026 🟦Josh Turek 45% 🟥Ashley Hinson 43% 🟨Thomas Laehn 7% https://t.co/ljcfBGqHhp

— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) October 27, 2026

Will the promised blue wave reach the Hawkeye State? No. They're landlocked. 

As has been the pattern in virtually every state reporting early voting results, Democrats came out of the in person blocks fast. After the first two days, they built nearly a 3,000-vote advantage over Republicans. Their turnout percentage was significantly over 2022 levels, while Republicans were softer than where they were four years ago. 

It’s all so tiresome https://t.co/qFrv3rDgGv

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) October 27, 2026

Eleven days in, the roll-off of Democrat in-person voting has continued while Republican turnout has gradually increased. As of yesterday, the inversion point was reached where Republicans beat Democrats for the day and began to chew away at the banked in-person vote. How does the race look now? I'd rather be Hinson, all things considered. 

In 2022's midterm cycle, again just counting in-person early voting only, by the time Iowans reached Election Day, Democrats had a 10,000-vote advantage. Look again at the graph above. Yesterday, Democrats hit their peak bank at a little over 4,500 votes, and that's with about a 33 percent greater overall turnout than 2022. Using a simple trend extrapolation, assuming the linear decrease of Democrat turnout continues for the remainder of the early voting period, and steadily increasing Republican turnout is maintained, Republicans will hold roughly a 1-5,000-vote advantage. And in case you're wondering, in 2022, Iowans voted in-person about 12 percent more than by mail-in ballots in the early vote season. This cycle? The ratio between in-person and mail-in is around twice as much. So Republicans are leading in a bigger chunk of raw votes cast. 

But there is the matter of mail-in ballots, which historically come in heavily favoring Democrats. By the end of the 2022 early voting season, in addition to the 10,000-vote advantage Democrats had with in-person voting, they also had a 55,000-vote margin among mail-in ballots cast. Democrats took a 65,000-vote edge into Election Day in 2022. 

This graph shows the same Iowa early vote, but does not break out in-person voting as a subset. This includes both mail-in and in-person, both what's called counter and satellite. 

Iowa Early Vote Composition Day-by-Day (2024 vs. 2026): https://t.co/BKB9uVpS4v

— Prairie Populist (@IAPrairiePop) October 26, 2026

Working the same extrapolations on reduced Democratic turnout by the day, but including mail-in, in-person counter voting, and in-person satellite voting, Democrats should have a banked number of votes going into Tuesday totaling...65,000. Again, this is with an overall turnout of 2022 plus 33 percent. So more Democrats voting, more Republicans voting, and roughly the same bank to show for it. Now for the fun part. 

In 2022, Republicans cast 155,000 more raw votes than Democrats on Election Day. So much for the 65,000 bank. Republicans won Iowa easily. What has changed in the last four years? 

In 2022, Iowa had 89,500 more registered Republicans than Democrats. In the past four years, the electorate has changed. It's gotten much redder. Going into this cycle, Republicans have 180,000 more registered voters than Democrats in the Hawkeye State. That's literally double the partisan makeup in one four-year cycle. 

Again assuming that the 33 percent increase in turnout for early voting this cycle compared to 2022 holds through Election Day, more extrapolation can be done to predict the rough raw vote advantage Republicans will have Tuesday alone with their increased registration advantage. That number should be in the range of 220,000 to 260,000 votes. 

Remember, R+4-leaning 65+ voters have made up the lion's share of early voting. Will they be exhausted on Election Day? To some degree, yes. Will the Democrat-rich 18-29s come out on Election Day in their entirety, being only 5 percent of them have bothered thus far? Perhaps. But there simply are not enough of them, even if they all came out and voted, to compete with what's coming at Democrats Tuesday at this rate. 

The other pushback I've seen online from lefty Election Twitter (or X) is that all of the indies will vote Democrat, and upwards of 10-15 percent of Republicans will vote for the Democrat as a protest to Donald Trump. I'm sorry, but as a Christian who believes Jesus turned water into wine and raised Himself and others from the dead, I do not have sufficient faith to believe in that premise. I've heard of getting high on copium, but in no reality does that kind of historic break happen over a Senate race in Iowa. Democrats peeling off in those kind of numbers against Abdul El-Sayed resulting in staying home or votes for Mike Rogers in Michigan? Sure, I can believe that. But in Iowa against Ashley Hinson? Not in a million years. 

Even if you want to entertain that fantasy, if Republicans simply do on Election Day what they're already doing in early voting, they'll still more than cover the defectors and the 65,000-vote spread. 

After Tuesday, will this get Chuck Schumer closer to the majority? Will this become Democrat Heaven? No. It's still Iowa.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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