The Promise and Perils of Korean Reunification

The world’s most important divided nation, Korea, hosts one of the world’s most volatile international confrontations. Renewed conflict there could be as intense as the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian war, potentially drawing in the United States, China, Russia, and Japan. Healing the division that led to the Korean War would be the most obvious way to preempt a military rerun—this time with nuclear weapons.

Germany’s experience demonstrates the great benefits of reversing artificial national divisions resulting from, and threatening to restart, conflict. Indeed, German reunification was the single event that most dramatically illustrated the end of the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. 

Unfortunately, the possibility of Korean reunification is looking ever more like an impossible dream. Even as ROK President Lee Jae Myung has feverishly sought to open a dialogue with North Korea’s supreme leader Kim Jong Un, the South Korean people have become ever more skeptical about a thaw in relations with the North, let alone reunification. According to a recent survey: 

42.4% of respondents identified North Korea as a ‘hostile entity threatening our safety,’ a 16.8 percentage point increase from 25.6% in the 2015 survey. Conversely, those viewing North Korea as a ‘cooperative partner to unite with’ dropped from 43.5% to 30.8%, a 12.7 percentage point decline. While the ‘cooperative partner’ response was higher than the ‘hostile entity’ in 2015, the trend reversed this time.