The big picture isn’t in dispute. Political analysts are correct to argue that Trump’s low job approval ratings, if they persist till November, probably will hurt the Republican Party in the midterms. A president’s job approval is a strong predictor of midterm results, which usually means bad things for the president’s party when it’s as low as Trump’s is. But this year, a problem arises because virtually all analysts use an approach that understates Trump’s true standing among voters...
...overall job approval, though commonly and prominently tracked, is not the figure to watch ahead of the midterms. The better indicator is job approval among registered and likely voters. Usually, these two aren’t all that far apart, but right now there is separation. And because of that, the aggregators are currently overestimating Trump’s political weakness.
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