President Trump’s continued online fulminations against NATO will not likely lead to American withdrawal from the alliance. Europeans should, however, note two important facts his behaviour has revealed: Trump views alliances as relationships, not treaties, and Europe remains much too militarily weak to defend its core interests.
Europe’s military weakness is well known, but it bears reiterating how massive the gap is between its might and its interests. America has sufficient oil and gas production to guarantee its economy can operate, albeit at a higher cost, while the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Europe does not yet it does not have the military might to ensure that the Strait can remain open to free navigation.
Europeans do have some military power. France has a modern aircraft carrier that it theoretically could deploy to the Arabian Sea to use to open the Strait. Italy also has a smaller carrier while Great Britain has two. Other NATO nations have frigates and destroyers they could contribute to a multi-national force, while all NATO nations have aircraft that could be sent to supplement the forces of America and its allies.
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