All those whose psychological equilibrium is disturbed by the ability of the United States to take dramatic unilateral action without collegialising its decisions with a bunch of unreliable allies, and particularly the more strenuous Trump-haters among them, continue to claim that the Iran War is a stalemate effectively won by the Iranians. Yet it is clear that Iran is desperate. Its daily oil exports have been reduced by 70 per cent and are falling quickly, and in from two to three weeks, they will be forced to close their oil wells, as they will overrun storage capacity. Shutting down oil wells is an exacting process which takes several months to undo.
By the end of those three weeks, there will be practically no gasoline in Iran; economic activity will have come to a standstill in almost every area except agriculture, and to the extent that anyone is paid anything by anybody, it will be as stratospheric inflation dilutes the already severely diminished value of currency in a tidal wave. It will soon be like Zimbabwe where luncheon and dinner menus state that the price of each dish will be subject to negotiation as any stated figure would have become obsolete while customers were enjoying the restaurateurs’ hospitality.
What appears to be the last shot in the locker for the beleaguered and fragmented Iranian regime is the false claim that they control the Strait of Hormuz. The United States Navy could certainly convoy oil tankers through in approximately three 30-tanker convoys per day. They have the ships and aircraft necessary to assure reasonable safety and could put Marines on all ships to repel boarders and respond instantly to shore attacks and to the small craft of the Iranians that have so terrorised unescorted tankers. President Trump has already declined the belated offer of the Europeans, who need this oil, to assist in clearing the Strait. The United States doesn’t really need oil from this source and its lack of alacrity in reducing the price of oil for allies who would not allow the United States use of their own airspace and American bases in their country for the purposes of conducting this war, is understandable.
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