The close cooperation between the UAE, Israel, and India, endorsed by the United States, manifests the resurgence of I2U2 (India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the United States) as a predominant security bloc. The strategic group, which remained practically dormant for many years, now seeks to exert its influence on the global strategic milieu.
The U.S.-Israel War on Iran has resulted in bloc realignment in the Middle East. UAE’s decision to quit OPEC indicates that the Gulf allies are no longer on the same page. Differences over retaliation and mediation with Iran have pushed the UAE away from Saudi Arabia into the Israeli camp. The transfer of the Iron Dome to the UAE demonstrates its reliance on Israel as the new security guarantor. The Indian foreign minister’s calculated visit to the UAE amid conflict and tacit American patronage shows that this realignment is not region-specific but rather a part of I2U2’s global resurgence.
Saudi-UAE Rift: A Precursor to Shifting Alliances
The rift between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which had been brewing for a long time, finally erupted into open disagreement over the UAE’s support for the Southern Transition Council in Yemen. Their support for rival groups in Libya, opposing views on the situation of Sudan, diplomatic engagement with Israel, and the status of Somaliland further aggravated the split. The US-Israel war in Iran and the resultant approach towards the conflict pushed the two sides into opposing camps.
The Saudi leadership, on the advice of Pakistan, supported the negotiation process between Iran and the U.S. The Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman validated Pakistan’s role as a facilitator and later as a mediator. Saudi Arabia also refrained from invoking the mutual defense agreement with Pakistan that it signed in September 2025 after Israeli strikes on Doha. This decision of the Saudi leadership prevented a head-on confrontation with Iran. Furthermore, this strategic prudence also averted the possibility of an encounter between Pakistan and Iran, as the former reiterated its commitment to defending Saudi sovereignty. This thwarted the prospects of inessential broadening of the conflict.
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