Although counting is continuing across the United Kingdom, the outcome of yesterday’s local elections is clear: Nigel Farage’s populist Reform Party has triumphed. It will be days, or even potentially weeks, until the full weight of the outcome sets in. But Reform’s triumph is clear. As of this writing, they have already picked up hundreds of seats, with more to come. Reform triumphed around the country, evicting Labour from power in places they have not lost for decades; while the final result in Wales is unclear, it is possible that Reform could even displace Labour there for the first time ever. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s firewall, it seems, has been reduced to London – and even that is no sure thing, as the count drags on.
But these were only local elections. While not quite as influential as America’s midterm elections – unlike those, control of parliament will not change – they are a historical barometer for how the wind is blowing in British politics. And the wind is blowing toward Farage. But the prime minister-in-waiting has a problem: The parliamentary elections are not until 2029, a little more than three years from today.
It is probable that he will not be facing Starmer in that election. Before yesterday’s votes Ed Miliband, himself a former Labour Party leader now serving in Starmer’s cabinet, was reported to have urged Starmer to resign in order to avoid an inevitable series of brutal leadership spills and party infighting. While Miliband – who lost the 2015 parliamentary election to Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron – likely is eyeing Number 10 for himself, and would prefer to gain it without having to fight Starmer in a brutal leadership election, his warning rings fair. Starmer’s approval rating, at 22 per cent, is one of the lowest of all elected democratic leaders on the planet; his only saving grace is that his other European counterparts, like France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Friedrich Merz, are even more unpopular.
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