North Korea and the Problem of Simultaneous War

The Korean Peninsula is essential to America’s strategy for deterring—and, if necessary, defeating—the emerging Axis of Dictatorships: the de facto alignment of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The DMZ running across the Peninsula functions both as the frontline against North Korean aggression and as a critical component of regional deterrence vis-à-vis China. It also represents a potential flashpoint that could force American forces to reallocate resources from other areas. Therefore, the primary security threat to both the United States and South Korea is not just North Korea’s military strength but also the danger that multiple crises in different regions could overwhelm American military capacity and undermine global deterrence. Washington is already engaged—both directly and indirectly—in two regions: Europe and the Middle East, where the latter is demanding resource shifts.

While most attention has remained focused on the Indo-Pacific, Korea could become the critical tipping point if multiple crises happen simultaneously.

How Pyongyang plans to fight

Although Western analysts mainly focus on North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, Pyongyang’s biggest threat to US forces in Korea isn’t a single weapon but its ability to combine mass, surprise, and precision long-range fires during the early hours of a conflict. North Korea’s strategy seeks to inflict maximum US casualties quickly, hinder reinforcements, and create political pressure before the United States and South Korea can fully respond.

Over the past few years, North Korea has deployed thousands of tube artillery pieces and multiple-launch rocket systems within range of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), many hidden in fortified underground bunkers. With these, it could strike US installations at Camp Humphreys and Osan Air Base simultaneously, disrupt Korean logistics hubs and airfields, saturate US and Korean AMD systems with thousands of rounds in the initial hours, and most importantly, launch ballistic and cruise missile attacks deep into Korea. It could also expand the theater at will by attacking US installations in Japan.