No matter how the Iran crisis ends, its course has demonstrated that global choke points remain critically important in the distribution of political, economic, and military power. Confidence in the strengthening of multilateral bodies and the stabilization of strategic balances through arms control has given way to a reality dominated by geopolitical competition and the return of power politics.
The international system has evolved toward an increasingly competitive order, in which the U.S., the Russian Federation, and China act as power poles that redefine spheres of influence and strategic priorities according to their own logic of global projection. This fact belies the notion that globalization has shrunk the world to the point where interconnectedness trumps geopolitical calculus.
The vulnerability of key choke points to attacks by even relatively marginal groups became obvious in late 2023, when the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen began expressing their support for the Palestinians in Gaza by attacking Israeli-connected or allied ships in the Bab-el-Mandeb (“Gate of Tears”) strait. Despite being limited to cheap drones, simple missiles, and lightly armed speedboats, they have nevertheless forced some of the world’s largest shipping and oil companies to suspend transit through the Red Sea and direct their ships around the Cape of Good Hope. This detour adds more than 3,000 miles and up to 10 days to journeys, increasing shipping costs from the Far East to Europe by at least 15 percent.
On June 15, just hours after President Trump announced the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, the Houthis said that they would continue banning Israeli-linked ships from the Red Sea, adding to concerns about global shipping and energy flows. Over the years, Saudi Arabia has diverted more than 70 percent of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. That has been a boon for the global energy market, helping keep oil prices mostly at or below $100 per barrel.
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