Even a perfunctory survey of the challenges and threats the world faces in the last quarter of 2026 is enough to make one nostalgic for the final decades of the Cold War. After the Cuban Missile Crisis there had been local wars, notably in Vietnam and the Middle East, and periods of energy instability—most memorably the 1973 oil crisis—leading to economic downturns, such as the Carter-era stagflation.
The current global risk landscape is different, however. An unprecedented convergence of military conflict, institutional fragility, and rapid technological disruption defines it. Rather than acting as isolated issues, these discrete threats have formed a systemic polycrisis, where geopolitical, economic, digital, and social instabilities interact and reinforce one another. Their combined impact is far greater than the sum of problems in isolation.
Specifically, the war with Iran has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and, for the second time in three years, threatened the Bab-el-Mandeb. This has led to global energy shortages and rising inflation, with skyrocketing fuel prices sparking protests in the European Union, the Middle East, Latin America, and Southeast Asia.
To make things worse, the ongoing war in Ukraine—with both sides targeting oil refineries and energy infrastructure—has aggravated the shortages of diesel fuel, especially in Europe, triggering demonstrations and social unrest. Everyone feels the spillover effects, including the United States, where the National Energy Assistance Directors Association projects a 9 percent increase in the cost to heat homes this winter, and a whopping 40 percent increase for those who use heating oil. This could significantly affect the outcome of the midterms next month.
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