If we are going to talk about the global climate, then we must look at tropical cyclones globally. That sounds intuitive, right? Well, you haven’t heard what’s been going on in the western Pacific (except from me, because I rant about it), which should be common knowledge when the Atlantic goes wild. If you know what is going on, you can see why the pattern can produce a year like this in the Atlantic. The ACE index is one of the lowest on record. As a percentage, it’s in the bottom 10%. But in ACE units, the western Pacific is almost 90 units below the 6-year average ACE of 301.
IOW, the average over the last 6 years out there has been as feeble as our Atlantic Basin is this year in total ACE. This is because a large-scale event is reducing, not increasing, tropical activity and intensity in the Northern Hemisphere, the opposite of what you are being told. I will show those numbers later
But first, in the western Pacific.
Average ACE for 2019–2025: approximately 209.
The north Atlantic this year is about 100 ACE points below average (season may not be done yet).
But the point is, the western Pacific, the busiest basin in the world, up until this year, is averaging almost as far below normal as the Atlantic is this year.
Are you aware of this?
And the Northern Hemisphere ACE index (where most of the global ACE occurs) since 2019 is averaging 13% below normal (it’s averaged 497; normal is 571).
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