Ted Cruz Could Totally Be a Presidential Contender in 2028

In case you missed it, my friend Matt Lewis is taking a pounding for this column at his new home at the Washington Sun (formerly NOTUS; check him out there!) suggesting that Ted Cruz is underpriced as a potential 2028 GOP nominee.

Matt and I frequently agree on things, and this is another example. Despite the fact that many people scoff at what he’s suggesting, Cruz stands a decent chance of being the GOP’s 2028 nominee, and will—I think—be a real contender even if he ultimately fails to clinch the nod.

Here’s why.

First, the big thing Matt correctly points out: The GOP has historically tended to nominate the runner up from the prior presidential primary when the next round occurs. In 2016, Cruz was the runner up. He actually got really close to winning! (Trust me, I was working with pro-Cruz delegates on the floor; Trump’s team really had to jam them to eke out a win—go ask the Alaska delegation if you don’t believe me).

But to differ from Matt a little bit, I don’t think the “this only applies when Vice Presidents don’t run” scenario matters much at all. The reason everyone believes in the “Vice Presidents get the nod first, then prior winners” stuff is because of George H W Bush getting the nod in 1988. But people forget: Bush was the runner up to Reagan in 1980. Maybe the reason he was pretty much a lock in 1988 wasn’t to do with the Vice Presidency; maybe it was to do with the fact he’d run before and the GOP followed tradition.