The conversation about the midterms has been focused a lot on whether or not Democrats can flip the Senate blue this year. That's partly because some of their candidates are doing surprisingly well (or were until recently in the case of Graham Platner). Less attention seems to be paid to the House, probably because a lot of people are assuming Democrats will get it.
There are a few standard reasons for this. First, midterms historically don't go well for the party in power. Second, the GOP advantage in the current House is really small. In fact, the current split is 218-212 with one independent (Kevin Kiley of California) and four vacancies. The four vacancies include Eric Swalwell, Tony Gonzales and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, all of whom resigned. The fourth vacancy is former Rep. David Scott who died in April.
Add to all of that the fact that President Trump's polling is pretty low and gas prices are pretty high and the Democrats' chance of flipping the House should be pretty good. However, the Washington Post has a story up today reminding readers that it's not a done deal. There are several reasons for that, starting with the Dems own polling.
Analysts estimate that Democrats need to win the national House vote by three to four points to win the majority. Democrats have a bigger advantage among highly motivated voters, who are more likely to turn out in November.
But polls also show that the Democratic brand is bruised...
Just before that 2018 election, 46 percent of adults rated Democrats favorably while 45 percent rated them unfavorably. Now, 30 percent rate Democrats favorably while 51 percent rate them unfavorably, almost identical to ratings for the Republican Party...
Democrats are counting on people who don’t like them but are fed up with a GOP-controlled Washington to vote blue.
Democrats have run on anyone but Trump before and it hasn't always worked out for them. Secondly, there is the redistricting done this year.
Republicans made it unusually hard for Democrats to win the majority by launching a national battle to redraw electoral maps mid-decade. While Democrats tried to gain their own seats, the redistricting gambit proved advantageous for the GOP...
If Democrats win all of the most competitive districts classified by the Cook Political Report, they would win 235 seats under the 2024 map. But under the current map, they would only win 223 seats.
They only need 218 for control so 223 would be more than enough, but the point is that may be closer to a best case scenario under the new maps.
Third, I've written several times about the GOP's big money advantage. The DNC, quite simply, is broke and won't be offering any money to support candidates who need it.
Fourth, the Democrat Party's lean to the Left may not pay off in the general election.
Doug Heye, a Republican strategist, said that while Republicans have a “very narrow” path to the majority, they could defy expectations if the party successfully casts its opponents as extreme and out of touch. They include candidates affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America, a growing political movement with far-left views.
“With every candidate on the DSA side that succeeds, that makes that argument that much easier,” Heye said.
None of that adds up to Republicans having an easy go of it this year. They have a lot of things working against them. But if the war with Iran ends and gas prices come down and people get turned off by DSA candidates, there is a path for the GOP to maintain control.
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