Germany Finds a Stash of Weapons in a Forest

Here we go again. German authorities found a stash of weapons hidden in a forest near Berlin. Instead of just collecting them, they rendered the weapons non-functional and left them in place to see who might come to collect them. But no one ever turned up. Nevertheless, the suspicion is that this was part of a planned attack.

German security services are investigating a plot to conduct a politically motivated attack, possibly directed by a foreign power, that was linked to guns found stashed in a forest on the edge of Berlin, the interior minister said on Friday.

While Alexander Dobrindt, the interior minister, was careful not to point a finger at any nation, the news came amid increased fear of destabilizing “hybrid” attacks that European governments have blamed, publicly and privately, on Russia.

“This case shows that we are working on the assumption that the risk level is high,” Mr. Dobrindt said at a news conference, noting that he had upgraded the threat level this year to high from abstract.

There is a suspect that Germany is interested in talking to but he's currently sitting in a Romanian jail.

No one was observed trying to collect the weapons, leading investigators to believe the agent or agents had learned of the cache’s discovery and it was now “dead”.

Dobrindt described the suspect in Romania, whose nationality was not disclosed, as a “low-level agent” and noted several other such operatives had ‌been detained so far this year.

No one is directly blaming Russia but that seems to be the thinking.

Peter Neumann, a professor of security studies at King’s College London, said that if the evidence showed the Kremlin was responsible, the German government would face a difficult balance over what to say publicly and what action to take in response.

“On the one hand, you want to make clear that it has consequences so that Putin doesn’t see it as a sign of weakness,” Professor Neumann said of the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin. “On the other hand, you don’t want to get into a direct conflict with Russia.”

Yes, and it's just as true that Russia doesn't want to start a war with NATO. So Putin is playing these hybrid warfare games.

Germany's Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt said federal prosecutors were investigating a suspect in Romania over suspicions of espionage and "the preparation of a serious act of violence threatening the state".

While refusing to confirm reports of Russian links to the cache, Dobrindt said he could not rule out "the involvement of foreign powers".

For months security agencies have warned that Russian intelligence services are planning assassinations in Germany, possibly targeting defence industry executives or opposition figures in exile.

Just a couple of weeks ago a drone was found at an airport in Leipzig, Germany. A second drone appears to have hit the nose of a plane taking off but in both cases the detonators were flawed and the plastic explosives bombs failed to go off. Russia was strongly suspected in that case and I speculated that the inoperable bombs may have been intended to be inoperable so they would serve as a warning. Putin can't afford to challenge NATO too directly, but he does want to continue to make himself a threat.

Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO’s resolve with a limited assault on an allied country in the next few years, according to new U.S. intelligence reports that posit possible scenarios ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale land incursion.

The U.S. had previously assessed that Putin wouldn’t provoke a North Atlantic Treaty Organization country while he is still fighting in Ukraine. But that assessment changed earlier this year, the U.S. officials said, as Putin is squeezed in Ukraine and under pressure at home to secure a victory. Kyiv’s drones are inflicting growing damage on both Russia’s army and oil industry, while Putin’s forces are making smaller gains at the front line amid heavy casualties.

Basically, Russia wants to carry out attacks with enough plausible deniability that NATO won't be forced to team up and punch back. At the same time, he wants those European countries to know that it was him so they'll reconsider their support for Ukraine. It's a fine line to walk and he's failed to walk it very well in the past. But these are clear signs that he's getting a bit desperate as the situation in Russia gets more dire thanks to the onslaught of Ukrainian drone attacks.

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