This race is turning into a barnburner, and the good guy is closing fast and furious.
What was supposed to be a cakewalk for shoo-in Democrat candidate for New Jersey governor, Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill, against businessman, former state representative, and previous candidate Jack Ciattarelli has morphed into a battle that the Democrats never saw coming and certainly didn't have a candidate prepared or capable enough for a real political knife fight.
Jack Ciattarelli is a hard workin' NJ native, and this is his second run at the governorship. Four years ago, he shocked the political world by narrowly losing to incumbent Phil Murphy by a razor-thin three percentage points in what is supposed to be a deep blue state.
Murphy's governance since has been a disaster for all concerned, and coupled with the Biden years, COVID, the enormous toll that Murphy's mandated Green energy transition has taken on residents, and the reelection of Donald Trump, Ciattarelli felt it was time to strike again.
Mikie Sherrill, a Virginia transplant who moved to the state around 2007 and has been a congresswoman since 2019, won her Democratic primary pretty handily (by 14%), and looked well situated to romp to a blue state governorship. The Democrat Party was certainly willing to pull out all the stops to assure her and her former roommate, Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger (conversely a NJ native running for Virginia governor), big wins in their respective races. They were like the Democrat Golden Woke Bobbsey twins.
It was all a done deal.
Spanberger's dream ticket troubles are pretty well documented and have dominated the news, with Winsome Sears roaring up to near parity in polls, and the attorney general's race flipping to red.
But in New Jersey, it's been nip and tuck. Sherrill's tongue-tied obfuscations in interviews and small, tightly controlled events have contrasted poorly with Ciattarelli's big, sweeping vision, open, raucous, happy gatherings, and his conscientious attempt at barnstorming through nearly every town in the state.
Old Bridge showed up BIG tonight — packed parking lot, overflowing energy, and one clear message: New Jersey has had ENOUGH.
— Jack Ciattarelli (@Jack4NJ) October 30, 2025
More than 50% of our neighbors agree this state is on the wrong track — and they’re right. After 25+ years of one-party rule, what do we have to show for… pic.twitter.com/BxqIWvYf4L
At the very least, every diner.
Those are New Jersey institutions.
Sherrill's had problems with everything from not explaining her congressional ethics lapses, her inexplicable wealth gains while in Congress for only a few years, even as far back as being part of one of the largest cheating scandals in the history of the Naval Academy.
All that before you get to her support for mandatory LGBTQ+ education in schools, men in women's sports, and continuing on Murphy's disastrous, ruinous Green path to energy perdition.
Oh, sorry - transition.
Democrats have been coming off the benches, from towns in my old neck of the woods like Branchville, to closer to the city, in Bergen County. All over the state, prominent, lifelong blue voters have publicly endorsed Ciattarelli over their party's candidate. I've never seen anything like this before.
🚨 New Jersey Democrat Councilman Jeff Lewis endorses @Jack4NJ for Governor.
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) October 30, 2025
LEWIS: “Mikie Sherrill is not cut out for the job...”pic.twitter.com/98Vs4FqRdd
The race is now a statistical tie.
The New Jersey governor’s race looks to be a dead heat. It’s very winnable. Get out and vote sane people in New Jersey. https://t.co/dQCvBmYVK8
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) October 30, 2025
The favorability ratings have Democrats freaking out, especially as Sherrill's whole schtick has been 'Trump bad, Trump likes Ciattarelli, Ciattarelli bad because TRUMP.'
Look at how Trump is polling.
HELLO
🟪 Bring Back Plastic bags 95%
— 🌿I Luv🌸Gritty🌿 (@ILuvGritty) October 30, 2025
The other thing Democrats are fretting over with their less-than-inspiring, truly flawed candidate?
Are minorities going to come out to vote for her?
Survey says...maybe not.
Democrats grapple with concerns about Black voter turnout in New Jersey
...But concerns about Black voter support and engagement have lingered among Democrats in New Jersey and nationally following President Donald Trump’s 2024 victory. Trump lost the Garden State but made significant gains compared to his 2016 and 2020 results, particularly among voters of color in the state’s urban areas.
I had to laugh at this Vanity Fair headline:
New Jersey’s Squeaker of a Gov Race Shows Just How Far Democrats Could Fall
I guess there's tantalizing news in the innards of the polls for Jersey folks in the know, too.
So @Jack4NJ lost Bergen by more than 5 points in 2021.
— Matt Rooney (@MattRooneyNJ) October 30, 2025
If he’s really only down 1? And she’s only at 43%? Whoa. 😳 https://t.co/AS8COwGjOt
There's been a lot of money spent already and five days to go.
Total spending on the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial general election already has exceeded $82 million based on disclosure reports filed with the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission.
— Shlomo Schorr (@OneJerseySchorr) October 30, 2025
Combined with the record $145 million spent during the state’s primary election, a… pic.twitter.com/QMdm90lFZM
Some of Sherrill's money - or her supporters' - has been spent on some scurrilous mailers. Bingley sent me shots of one he got in the mail day before yesterday.
Check this sneaky stuff out.
Yep, that's Republicans. Rounding up all their political opponents and sending them off to the Gulag, where all teh Gays still are from the last time Trump was president.
Some frightened little old lady in Hoboken is falling for it, but mostly, the Democrats and their rhetoric have done nothing but turn New Jerseyans off - or turn them red.
Neighbors need to tell neighbors to vote.
A surprising 53% of likely NJ voters believe their co-workers and neighbors are supporting Ciattarelli, compared to 47% who said the same about Sherrill
— Wake Up NJ 🇺🇸 New Jersey (@wakeupnj) October 30, 2025
Interesting, what do you think? Have you talked to folks about this? pic.twitter.com/06KaLiBQl5
Shake those 'shy Trump voters' out of the trees. Trump only lost the state last year by six points.
...Despite Sherrill’s 3-point lead overall, 53 percent of voters believe their neighbors support Ciattarelli. In years past, this typically indicated the possibility that there was understated Republican enthusiasm, sometimes referred to as the shy Trump vote. These voters are less likely to admit to pollsters that they are voting for the Republican candidate, fearing that others might find out, but ultimately choose them when casting their ballots.
While doing better than ever before, Republicans are still behind in the early voting.
New Jersey Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli: “We’ve had more Republicans return vote by mail ballots than ever before. We’re matching them voter for voter here in the early voting. We’re in great shape. We’re heading for a victory.”
— RedWave Press (@RedWave_Press) October 30, 2025
Ciattarelli is also capitalizing on a… pic.twitter.com/6YdtUn8yUS
Ciattarelli is also capitalizing on a sleeper issue that voters are FIRED up about.
He has revealed a plan to get rid of the state’s plastic bag and single-use paper bag ban.
VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!
The 'sleeper issue' of the campaign may just be the grocery bag that breaks the donkey's back!
But you have to get out and VOTE, New Jersey.
You can do this.
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