Crude oil flows from the Middle East are returning toward pre-war levels despite continued risks to shipping, according to separate estimates from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
“The Middle East’s oil export arteries are flowing again,” JPMorgan analysts including Natasha Kaneva said in a Sept. 29 note. That’s “a remarkable recovery for a region still at war,” although it’s been uneven, they said.
It sounds as if nearly every cylinder was firing and the Saudi repairs to drone-damaged pipelines were completed much more expeditiously than anticipated.
...The global oil market is zeroed in on the volumes of oil and products coming out of the region as the conflict between the US and Iran enters its eighth month. In addition to shipments going via the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has managed to restore about half the flows on its East-West pipeline after damage earlier this month to the cross-country conduit, which feeds its Red Sea ports.
This is quite an update to what I thought was a surprising and cheerful piece I did the other day, when analysts were cautiously sticking a toe in the water, believing the flow of crude out of the region had bumped up into the 80s.
Now the big banks are boldly coming forward with these bullish calls on what the United States has managed to do to resume the oil trade. Shipments of distillates and such refined products, however, like much-in-demand diesel and gasoline, are still running well behind their annual averages. They are sitting somewhere in the upper 50 percent range so far, but are gradually increasing.
JP Morgan note today suggests that crude oil flows from the Middle East have normalized at about 98% of prewar volumes. But refined products (58% of prewar) have not, supporting higher finished product prices.
— Tom Kloza (@TomKloza) September 29, 2026
The story with oil, though, has just been a massive success for 'a region still at war.'
Goldman-Sachs is calling it a 'back to normal'...
GOLDMAN: GULF OIL EXPORTS FULLY RECOVER TO 2025 LEVELS
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) September 30, 2026
Persian Gulf oil exports have doubled in September, reaching 23.3 million barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs.
Crude shipments have recovered to 108% of their 2025 average, but key refined products, including diesel…
...Crude shipments have recovered to 108% of their 2025 average, but key refined products, including diesel and jet fuel, remain at just 50% amid refinery outages and shipping risks.
Goldman sees the global oil market roughly balanced and maintains its $85 Brent forecast for year-end.
...and sees the global supply 'roughly balanced.' They're forecasting that price to come down by year's end.
And what is with that price, if the oil is getting out as it's supposed to?
This could be the craziest thing that worked.
— Oguz Erkan (@oguzerkan) September 30, 2026
US started blockading Hormuz in April and secured a narrow corridor for ships near the Omani Coast.
Oil flows have since returned to pre-war levels, and Iran’s exports have fallen to 0.
Iran no longer controls the Hormuz traffic. pic.twitter.com/JLhWx6tzUf
Well, in the contrary nature of a market, it's now a 'fear' premium keeping the barrel price elevated, not the lack of oil itself. The fear that the Trump blockade and economic strangulation of the Iranian regime have been SO successful that it's left the mullahs and IRGC with no alternative but to ratchet up military action.
I know, right - no good deed.
Oil remains pricey because Iran might retaliate militarily for losing while all their neighbors get rich.
WE STILL WORRY — AND THE CONSUMER PAYS FOR IT
...Flows through Hormuz have almost “returned to late-June highs of nearly 13 million barrels a day, led primarily by Saudi Arabia,” JPMorgan said. “But higher crossings should not be mistaken for improved safety — rather, they reflect the industry’s increasing ability to operate under sustained risk.”
...“We note a divergence between the fall of Iranian exports and the rise of exports of other Persian Gulf producers,” Goldman said. “Saudi estimated exports more than doubled in September and rose above their 2025 average.”
...Despite the uptick in cargoes, global crude benchmark Brent remains on course for a third monthly gain, of about 14%, in September. Front-month futures for November — which expires later on Wednesday — traded 0.8% higher at $103.43 a barrel at 11:40 a.m. in Singapore.
“Despite the recovery in gulf exports, crude prices remain relatively well-supported, and we still worry about renewed potential escalation that damages more energy infrastructure,” the Goldman analysts said.
All I can say to the President and Treasury Secretary Bessent is, with everything else this administration is doing right, for God's sake: squeeze 'til your fingers turn blue and get this war over with.
Imagine if oil wasn’t $100 per barrel… https://t.co/j0oSjAeofz
— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) September 30, 2026
Iran is in its death throes. I mean, lookee here.
What a tell.
How long have I been saying that the only people supporting the IRGC is the Democrat Party and their propaganda wing in the Legacy/mainstream media?? https://t.co/iDXTtEuwbh
— The Alan Sanders Show 🇺🇸⚓️🐕 (@AlanJSanders) September 30, 2026
Speaking of Democrats, there's also some warm fuzzies trying to be sold for the Lightbringer days of yore, which frankly, were more 'gore' when it came to gas and oil.
This chart stirred up some of that misplaced nostalgia.
Meanwhile during the Obama administration (2009–2017), the regular retail gas price in Texas averaged roughly $2.60 to $2.70 per gallon across the entire eight-year term, tracking below the national average. Now we have to deal with $4?
— Physixdude (DKS) (@Physixdude13) September 25, 2026
Or is it purposefully erroneous?
$2.60 a gallon in 2009 was pretty pricey and just about where we are right now.
Additionally, in the good old Obama days, I remember gasoline shortages and spikes in the price per gallon that went much higher than this fellow's rosy memories.
In fact, Obama had such fossil fuel-related issues because his administration was so hostile to the industry and totally inept during a crisis that FactCheck.org had to dig him out of numerous holes.
This is a helluva 2011 headline no one's mentioning.
Is Obama to Blame for $4 Gasoline?
And what FactCheck goes on to try to indemnify Obama from is pretty damning in light of all the hell Trump is catching right now. Oil had topped $100 a barrel and gas at the time, to quote FactCheck itself, 'hovers near $4 per gallon' (In today's dollars, that's $ 5.91/gal).
Conflicting, false and misleading statements on oil production and gasoline prices have become the currency of politicians lately, as oil tops $100 per barrel and gasoline hovers near $4 per gallon. Among some of the claims that got our attention:
- Top Republicans blame President Obama’s moratorium on deepwater drilling for rising gasoline prices. The moratorium delayed drilling of some new wells, but did not affect the output of wells already in production. A projected drop in total domestic oil production this year should amount to six-tenths of 1 percent of all U.S. consumption of liquid fuels. A Wall Street oil analyst told us the moratorium has had “zero” effect on prices.
- Obama said domestic oil production last year was its highest since 2003. That’s true — but U.S. oil production is projected to drop this year.
- Rep. Kevin McCarthy said “under this administration our output has gone down 13 percent.” McCarthy is wrong — U.S. oil production was up in 2009 and 2010, and is projected to decline only 2 percent this year.
- Sarah Palin said Obama is “allowing America to remain increasingly dependent on imports” from unstable countries. But there has been a decline — not an increase — in total oil imports from Middle Eastern and African countries, as well as countries identified by the State Department as “dangerous or unstable,” since Obama took office.
Well, huh.
$3.96/gal in this July 2011 report ABC News must have forgotten about, but did block from sharing.
And this went on for years because you had an administration that wanted to cripple the fossil fuel industry and change Americans' driving habits. And they were more than willing to do so through painful restriction of the one thing you need to use your vehicle - gasoline. While blaming Libya or forces outside their control, as if butter wouldn't melt in their mouths. The list of what Obama did to purposefully destroy the energy independence of this country is long and disgusting when you see it laid out year by year, as it is in the House Committee on Natural Resources timeline.
Don't even try to hand out those breezy gossamer dreams about what life was like with that guy as president. I can crush them like bugs in two seconds.
Now, we have a president moving Heaven and Earth to make American energy the bulwark of national security against whatever happens in the rest of the world.
This by no means is to say it isn't painful and needs to end - it does. Prices have to chill out, BUT.
In regard to Obama or Biden, there's progress and tremendous effort being made to do so right in front of our eyes nearly every day.
And, unlike those two Democrats who worked against the interests of the American people, this president has us firing on nearly all cylinders on all fronts.
It's demonstrably false that life was better in blue.
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