Almost every journalist covering Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion manages to combine near-total ignorance and a growing hostility to the United States to create a toxic binary gaseous emission of stupidity.
It's been only a bit more than two weeks since the operations began, and Iran's military infrastructure is in ruins, its leadership decapitated, its secondary and tertiary leaders are dropping like flies, its internal security forces are at each other's throats, its neighbors have turned against it in fury, and it has only managed minor damage to the US or Israel.
The regime is playing its last cards, sporadically lobbing its last missiles and drones, flailing. Even its most potent weapon—control over the Strait of Hormuz—is a wasting asset, because the most concentrated pain it inflicts is upon itself, because the United States has now defanged Kharg Island, out of which 90% of Iran's oil is delivered. The US can occupy the island any time it wants, cutting off more than half of Iran's income.
Imagine having TDS so bad you can unironically tweet that overthrowing:
— Bit Paine ⚡️ (@BitPaine) March 17, 2026
1) Nicolas Maduro
2) Ayatollah Khamenei
3) Miguel Díaz-Canel
Three LITERAL DICTATORS is a “worst case scenario of authoritarianism.” https://t.co/I4kyRgCFHi
Yet to read Pravda and to listen to the Democrats, the United States and Israel have no plan and are losing the war badly.
This assessment is based mostly on hostility to Israel and Donald Trump, and hardly at all on the facts on the ground.
Indeed. War can not be won with a few tweets.
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) March 17, 2026
Something Larijani, who had become a prolific tweeter, has now found out. https://t.co/SO4OAlpzxi
That said, critics do have a point: merely destroying a military does not guarantee regime collapse. There are countries that basically have no military, and yet they are doing fine. Ask the Costa Ricans.
Only...Iran is not Costa Rica. The regime is absolutely hated by the populace, who are only kept in check by a brutal internal security force willing to murder tens of thousands of its civilians and to rape any women who defy it.
Horrific gang-rape and torture ordeal of Iranian nurses: Medics 'subjected to brutal sex attacks in revenge for caring for wounded rioters with one victim begging surgeons to let her die' https://t.co/IsTL7F5Yzs
— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) March 16, 2026
This war is being executed in phases, and almost nobody in the media either seems to understand that, or they are pretending that they don't. And the allies are now a few days into one of the most critical strategic phases of the war: systematically eliminating the internal security forces of Iran.
Those security forces hold the key to power for the regime. It is only they who hold the population in terror and barely contained rage against their oppressors.
Around 300 Basij commanders and field officials were killed in a wave of overnight strikes on key command and operational centers of Iran’s Basij forces, Iran International has learned.
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) March 17, 2026
The strikes appeared to hit the logistics and command structure of a force long used to… pic.twitter.com/M2PR6IZiH2
Around 300 Basij commanders and field officials were killed in a wave of overnight strikes on key command and operational centers of Iran’s Basij forces, Iran International has learned.
The strikes appeared to hit the logistics and command structure of a force long used to suppress dissent and confront anti-government protests.
In one of the most critical attacks, a Basij support unit’s repair and maintenance center was hit. The site housed hundreds of vehicles and motorcycles used in street operations and neighborhood patrols. Initial reports said the fleet was destroyed.
Facilities linked to the Mohammad Rasoulollah Corps, the IRGC unit responsible for the greater Tehran area, were struck.
The Imam Hadi security unit, a strategic command center in Tehran, was also heavily damaged.
The Imam Ali security battalions, which have played a central role in cracking down on protests, also suffered heavy personnel and equipment losses.
https://iranintl.com/en/202603175489
I have been arguing for several days now that the key to regime change is destroying the Basij. One of the reasons why "boots on the ground" have been necessary in past wars to achieve regime change is that the ultimate means of any regime is the monopoly of violence within a territory, which is what defines any state. You generally need troops to root out the agents of the regime.
BREAKING: Ahmad Reza Radan, the “chief butcher” (head of the police force) of the Islamic regime of Iran, one of the individuals responsible for the massacre of more than 32,000 Iranian protesters, appeared tonight among supporters of the regime in Tehran, the capital city of… pic.twitter.com/sOqLffXeET
— Babak Taghvaee - The Crisis Watch (@BabakTaghvaee1) March 16, 2026
BREAKING: Ahmad Reza Radan, the “chief butcher” (head of the police force) of the Islamic regime of Iran, one of the individuals responsible for the massacre of more than 32,000 Iranian protesters, appeared tonight among supporters of the regime in Tehran, the capital city of Iran.
He ordered them to be present in the streets of cities tomorrow to brutally suppress the people of Iran if they attempt to celebrate the historic festival of Chaharshanbe Suri. The regime fears that people may use this historic festival as an opportunity to rise against it.
For that reason, he is preparing to deploy Basij militants, IRGC forces, and police units to violently suppress people if they attempt to do so.
Israel and the US are trying something new: eliminating that monopoly from the air and with assassinations on the ground. And they are able to do that because the Iranian population is providing the intelligence for precision strikes, and Iranian rebels within Tehran and other cities are assassinating Basij militia forces when they have the opportunity.
All indications are that the Basij is running scared.
This one is priceless. An Iranian puts drone like sounds on a sound system on his balcony, causing Basij terrorists to panic and run away. pic.twitter.com/sqfI5s9sWu
— Israel News Pulse (@israelnewspulse) March 16, 2026
And they are running scared with good reason: the assassination campaign is working.
🔴 COMMANDER OF THE BASIJ UNIT ELIMINATED
— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) March 17, 2026
Yesterday, the IDF targeted & eliminated Gholamreza Soleimani, who operated as commander of the Basij unit for the past 6 years.
Under Soleimani, the Basij unit led the main repression operations in Iran, employing severe violence,… pic.twitter.com/aJ0dNtCFz0
Both Israel and the US are flying drones overhead 24/7, and while Iran has had modest success in taking them down—about 10% have been disabled or shot down—the US still has near air dominance, and will continue this campaign for the foreseeable future.
1. Wait for all of them to get into the car
— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) March 16, 2026
2. Wait for the car to start driving
3. BOOM 💥
Another beautiful job by the IDF. pic.twitter.com/FAfvBoW9vb
Wars are not won by merely destroying things. The complete destruction of Berlin proved that.
> Be an IRGC officer in Iran
— Ashley Rindsberg (@AshleyRindsberg) March 17, 2026
> Watch your Supreme Leader get killed
> Watch your chief of staff, intel and logistics go
> Fire missiles at all your former friends
> Watch your boss and his boss and his boss get killed
> Watch your HQ get blown up
> Tell your troops to meet in…
> Be an IRGC officer in Iran
> Watch your Supreme Leader get killed
> Watch your chief of staff, intel and logistics go
> Fire missiles at all your former friends
> Watch your boss and his boss and his boss get killed
> Watch your HQ get blown up
> Tell your troops to meet in public places for safety
> Watch your troops get blown up in public places
> Put Basij checkpoint around cities
> Watch Basij checkpoints get blown up
> Try to run away
> Realize there's nowhere to run
Wars are won by breaking the enemy's will. They must cry uncle, and until they do, the war continues. Wars are political affairs, which is why so much effort is put into anti-Trump and Netanyahu propaganda, and why the United States, which won every tactical battle in Vietnam, lost the war.
— AG (@AGHamilton29) March 17, 2026
The strikes on the Basij and IRGC are aimed at breaking the will of the Iranian internal security apparatus. There is no certainty that the drone strikes and assassinations will succeed, but there is no reason to believe that they couldn't.
Checking in on this one. https://t.co/m3L1SnpEaT
— Omri Ceren (@omriceren) March 17, 2026
Strikes against the regime's internal security forces will continue for the foreseeable future, and their success or failure will ultimately determine the outcome of the war.
Dems Mark Penn and Andrew Stein write in today’s WSJ:
— David Asman (@DavidAsmanfox) March 17, 2026
“Journalists have a right and a duty to report bad news and to question Pollyannaish reports from the U.S. government. But many seem to be going beyond that and rooting for America to lose…” https://t.co/uhy1hJKFho
It is a battle of wills. Iran is betting that its control of the Strait of Hormuz will break the will of the United States and Israel. We are betting that systematically killing IRGC and Basij operatives will.
Only time will tell. I am betting on Trump and Netanyahu. Our establishment is betting, and hoping, that Iran holds out.
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