The political firestorm that J.D. Vance ignited, and that the leaked versions of the Memorandum of Understanding have fueled, is not going away any time soon.
Even if and when the MOU is released (it is being held back due to "sensitivities" expressed by Iran, Pakistan, and Qatar), the furor is unlikely to die down, because everyone knows that such agreements have secret annexes that no one is supposed to see.
I point the finger at Vance not so much as a criticism of him in particular, since he is clearly doing a fine job of projecting sunny optimism; it's that most of what he has said has fueled the suspicions people have that this deal amounts to a capitulation on the part of the Trump administration, giving Iran what it demanded all along, including $300 billion in reparations by another name.
We also don't know to what extent the Strait of Hormuz will be open without "fees." Iran claims that it retains sovereignty over the Strait, shares it with Oman, and has the right to collect fees. The US says it will remain fee-free.
Not good. As conservatives have said for decades about things like Planned Parenthood, money is fungible.
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) June 15, 2026
We’d just be facilitating the rearmament of Iranian radicals and funding its terror proxies across the globe if we facilitate a $300B “reconstruction fund.” https://t.co/FeaYOwnb4s
Trump calls the $300 billion "investments," and says that none of the money comes from American taxpayers, which of course is not the point. The point is that the US is lifting sanctions and opening the money flow to Iran to pay for reconstruction of what we intentionally destroyed, with reason. Call it what you like, but Trump's critics right now see the money flowing in to replenish Iran's coffers.
Trump is arguing that Iran has undergone something akin to regime change, and that the current leadership of Iran is comprised of people we can deal with.
President Trump says Iran has rational leadership now that the past leaders have been eliminated by the U.S. military. pic.twitter.com/8TnSP17lrD
— Breitbart News (@BreitbartNews) June 16, 2026
J.D. Vance went even further, suggesting that Iranian leaders are interested in cooperating with the United States, realizing that the whole "Death to America" thing was a mistake.
ICYMI: JD Vance while explaining the MOU says IRGC leadership says the way they did business with with US was a mistake:
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 17, 2026
"The coolest thing about the progress we've made over the last few weeks is that you see people within the Iranian system, senior leadership, even IRGC… pic.twitter.com/BV51dU1jcy
"The coolest thing about the progress we've made over the last few weeks is that you see people within the Iranian system, senior leadership, even IRGC officials say, 'You know what? We may have some animosity. We may have some mistrust, but we recognize the way that we've done business with the United States for forty-seven years is a mistake. Let's try something else.'
As he says, that would be "the coolest thing." If true.
Of course, it is within the realm of possibility that Trump and Vance are misreading the Iranians and that they have not had a change of heart. There are reports that Iran has promised Hezbollah that the money will start flowing again, and that the "Axis of Resistance," which has been battered down quite a bit in the past few years, will reconstitute.
The question then is, what will Trump do about it? Will he see that as a betrayal of the terms of the MOU? As an indication that the Iranians, in fact, cannot be trusted? And will he, as he says, start raining down bombs again? Ed has that story.
BREAKING: "If I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head."
— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 17, 2026
President Trump warns Iran that any change to the peace agreement or failure to comply could bring an immediate military response.
"If they don't behave, we'll go right back to… pic.twitter.com/67JRcDptYS
BREAKING: "If I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head."
President Trump warns Iran that any change to the peace agreement or failure to comply could bring an immediate military response.
"If they don't behave, we'll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head," Trump said.
Trump contrasted the deal with the Obama-era JCPOA, arguing the previous administration tried to "bribe their way out of it."
"You know what the Iranians did? They laughed at Obama and they said, 'he's a stupid son of a b****.'"
A lot of Trump's critics on the deal doubt that Trump would follow through. The argument against them is obvious: Trump did it before, so he could do it again. That's a compelling argument.
The counter-argument, though, is that Trump has, both before and after the so-called "cease-fire," also made a lot of threats about conducting far more devastating strikes on Iran. Remember the "bridge and power plant" threats, made multiple times? The "wipe their civilization off the map" threats?
BREAKING: President Trump reveals that every power plant and every bridge will be "decimated by 12 o'clock tomorrow night."
— Resist the Mainstream (@ResisttheMS) April 6, 2026
"Burning, exploding, and never to be used again!"pic.twitter.com/2nDZAZ2J3w
Those threats were made in April. The MOU didn't come until June, after months of "a deal is around the corner." That has bred a lot of skepticism. This MOU, whatever it says, seems to them inconsistent with Trump's earlier statements, leading them to wonder why this particular promise is real.
UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER
— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) April 22, 2026
_ pic.twitter.com/zrITMYp4T5
Administration officials are preparing the public for what sounds like a less-than-impressive MOU, which in itself will not mollify critics:
The officials described the text of the agreement as incredibly vague, mainly intended to create a more favorable environment for the highly technical, in-person talks to come. They added that the framework is aimed at providing Iran the ability to sell it politically to their internal audience.
Additionally, the officials said that the text of the memorandum of understanding — which Vice President JD Vance told CNN Monday is one-and-a-half pages long — didn’t reflect critical back-channel commitments Iran has made to the US, which they argued gave them more confidence in signing on to the arrangement.
“People shouldn’t read too much into the language of the MOU,” one of the officials said, describing the agreement as a “political document.”
“What’s more important than the actual document is the understandings we have with each other, and that’s why it’s important to get it done, that we can create the environment to go and talk about all these things, because it basically says we will release sanctions, we will do a deal with nuclear, we will unfreeze funds,” the same official said. “But we’ll release sanctions when, you know, based on progress. We’ll release funds once we’ve agreed on the mechanisms to do so.”
The official added that the president’s team of negotiators “came up with language that allows (Iran) to say what they need to say for their domestic politics.”
But that dynamic risks severe backlash to the Trump administration back home. Officials have worked for months to come to an agreement with Iran, looking to end a deeply unpopular war without a clear endgame that has sent gas prices skyrocketing. Already, conservative hawks have been demanding to see the framework, suspicious that President Donald Trump and his administration gave away too much in the name of ending the war.
The text of the agreement does not describe in specific detail what commitments Iran has made on its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, according to a person who saw the text and described it to CNN, even though Trump and other officials have insisted the US will oversee its destruction. Instead, the agreement states in broad terms that Iran “reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons,” a commitment Tehran also made in the 2015 nuclear deal with the Obama administration.
However, US officials argued that Iran has “backchanneled” to the US that they will offer the concessions the Trump administration is looking for. That includes US involvement in the destruction of the enriched materials on site in coordination with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The officials said such a concession is not stated explicitly in the document.
By contrast, the text does spell out in some detail what financial relief Iran can expect if it fulfills its commitments, including the ability to tap into a $300 billion development fund in the future, according to the officials. Both Trump and Vance have been adamant that the fund will not be financed by American dollars.
Perhaps this is one reason that the MOU has yet to be released. It doesn't, in itself, come close to resolving the big issues that drove us to war. The backbone of the deal, it seems, is the assurances from backchannel conversations the US has had with the "rational" Iranian leaders.
Also fueling skepticism is the Iranian assertion that the conclusion of this war is a prelude to the next.
NEW: Hassan Khomeini, a senior Iranian Shiite cleric and the grandson of Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic:
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 17, 2026
“The Ramadan War (Iran war with U.S. and Israel) was the lesser jihad; from today, the greater jihad begins.” pic.twitter.com/R5GZLq7fN4
Of course, they could just be blowing smoke. You can't expect the Iranians to admit that they got their butts kicked, and the Trump administration rightly points out that the Iranian military—save for its "mosquito navy," which is still quite real, its drone force, which is still apparently capable and is likely being restocked, and its missile force, which is not destroyed—is gone. It has no Navy, a diminished Air Force, and a damaged (although reconstituting) air defense grid.
Here’s @gen_jackkeane on dealing with Iran: “You can't trust them… what they say and what they do have been, for 47 years, two different things.” pic.twitter.com/B8CR7UECZ8
— Larry Kudlow (@larry_kudlow) June 16, 2026
Militarily, Iran is certainly not stronger than before the war, although it's unclear to what extent the lack of Navy and Air Force actually matters, since neither was of any use during the conflict. Iran's military strength was always in its asymmetric forces, which it, to some extent, retains.
Trump:
— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) June 17, 2026
Iran has to have some missiles because other people have missiles. What am I going to do? Am I going to let Saudi Arabia have missiles but Iran can't have them?
They hurt a little location, but they don't blow up the planet. pic.twitter.com/EGWsLXIgQJ
It seems, from what Trump and Vance are saying, as well as from what administration officials have leaked to news outlets, that the deal's guarantee boils down to Trump's willingness to continue bullying Iran into cutting a further deal within the next 60 days. Or more, since the deadline can be extended indefinitely at the agreement of both parties.
.@POTUS: "It's a Memorandum of Understanding. If it doesn't get done in 60 days, that's alright — we go back to bombing. I don't want to do that because it's so good, but we might have to because we're never going to let them have a nuclear weapon." pic.twitter.com/Ki9pEodsmV
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) June 17, 2026
If Trump is willing to go to war to get the "nuclear dust," as he puts it, then the MOU has the teeth that Vance and others in the administration claim it does. If he is done with the war, as many suspect, then the skepticism is warranted.
In other words, it all boils down to how you read Trump's intentions. And the Iranians'. Some people are confident, while others are...not.
— The Babylon Bee (@TheBabylonBee) June 16, 2026
UPDATE: The United States has released the MOU, and it is, essentially, what has been reported. Perhaps a bit stronger, if you prefer Iran's side.
The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have jointly agreed in good faith on [ __ date] on the following:
1 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war are signing this MOU to declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.
2 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
3 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.
4 — immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.
5 — Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.
6 — The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers, and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.
7 — The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
8 — The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpile enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven with the minimum methodology to be down blended on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above missions. They express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.
9 — Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.
10 — The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.
11 — The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during negotiations. Such funds, whether obtaining the original account or transfer, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designed by the Central Bank, excuse me, ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.
12 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.
13 — After signing this MOU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.
14 — The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.
No wonder the White House said, "You shouldn't read too much into the MOU." Because if this is all there is, then, well, it looks pretty bad.
UPDATE #2:
As with Trump's seeming endorsement of an Iranian missile program, Trump seemingly endorses the idea that Iran should have a nuclear energy program, and thus enrichment capabilities. He also seems lukewarm in getting the "nuclear dust" any time soon.
Reporter: If Iran comes back after the signing of this and say they want to continue to have a civilian nuclear program, is that acceptable to you?
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 17, 2026
Trump: It is a little hard though when you say that somebody wants to other people have it, other adjoining states have it and… pic.twitter.com/0JIGLQcPcB
Reporter: If Iran comes back after the signing of this and say they want to continue to have a civilian nuclear program, is that acceptable to you?
Trump: It is a little hard though when you say that somebody wants to other people have it, other adjoining states have it and you're not letting them have it for purposes of electricity and things like that, it's always a little tough. You have to use a little common sense.
Trump on Uranium: Nobody can get it, so it's not important that we do it quickly, but we could do it fairly quickly. Nobody can do it. And if they do, we'll hit them with Patriots. pic.twitter.com/c3GH6fNHnv
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 17, 2026
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