As I wrote last night, Iran canceled the talks in Switzerland, claiming that Israel violated the Memorandum of Understanding by striking Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Not to toot my own horn, but I have been warning about this since the details of the MOU came out, and even wrote a VIP piece about how Iran would use the Lebanon provisions in the MOU—the very first paragraphs dealt with Lebanon, before even lifting the blockade—to jerk the United States around and drive a wedge between us and Israel.
Four IDF soldiers killed by Hezbollah drone strike in Lebanon https://t.co/Qzvlbnb2CQ pic.twitter.com/zHg51i1Lsq
— New York Post (@nypost) June 19, 2026
Israel has, indeed, been "violating" the ceasefire it never was allowed to negotiate, but only because, you guessed it, Iran had given Hezbollah the green light to attack and kill Israelis. They did so, killing four soldiers in a tank.
In the past 48 hours, Hezbollah killed 5 israelis and injured 12.
— Israel Foreign Ministry (@IsraelMFA) June 19, 2026
These are Hezbollah's systematic violations of the ceasefire on 17-18 June alone:
• 63 rocket attacks
• 7 explosive UAV attacks
• 2 IED attacks
• 1 missile attack
• 1 infiltration attempt by 5 terrorists pic.twitter.com/XPObX14gUG
Iran's assumption seems to be that the United States is over a barrel, and that it can play the role of Darth Vader and keep changing the "deal" whenever it likes. By canceling talks in Switzerland, it is slapping the United States in the face, trying to humiliate us. No doubt the Israel-haters and -skeptics will do exactly what Iran wants and blame them for not sitting back and taking it, but at least for the moment, Trump's reaction appears to be the opposite of what they hoped, or at least sort of.
He's pissed.
Ambassador Huckabee, who doesn't seem to have been restrained by Trump in his defenses of Israel's rights, isn't holding back. He puts all the blame on Hezbollah, and until he and Trump change his tune it seems to be that Israel is not being thrown under the bus to keep the deal going.
French FM said Israel needs to stop strikes on Hezbollah. Does France get all its info from Hezbollah? Last night, Israel had 4 of its soldiers killed. Israel strikes when struck as @yechielleiter brings FACTS. Ceasefire happens when Hezbollah stops shooting & killing. https://t.co/OzeCOTPy6D
— Ambassador Mike Huckabee (@GovMikeHuckabee) June 19, 2026
Here’s your reminder of how Hezbollah is “upholding the ceasefire” in the last couple of days:
💥 June 17th:
10:15 - 1 IED
10:57 - 2 Explosive UAVs
12:35 - 9 Rockets
12:37 - 2 Rockets
12:51 - 1 Missile
12:56 - 2 Rockets
13:04 - 6 Rockets
16:53 - 2 Rockets
17:31 - 3 Rockets
17:38 - 1 Rocket
18:24 - 2 Rockets
18:39 - 5 Rockets
18:50 - 5 Rockets
18:54 - 2 Rockets
19:12 - 5 Rockets
19:21 - 4 Rockets
19:37 - 3 Rockets
19:46 - 6 Rockets
20:56 - 6 Rockets
💥 June 18th:
01:00 - 5 terrorists approached forward defense line
06:57 - 1 Explosive UAV
07:28 - 1 Explosive UAV
08:16 - 2 Explosive UAVs
08:23 - 1 Explosive UAV
08:51 - IED explosion
Yesterday, a lot of signals were sent out that the Trump administration was unhappy with Israel, which may have accelerated Iran's timeline for poking the Israeli bear to see what happened.
It’s Friday, June 19, and overnight Hezbollah has continued its campaign against IDF forces in southern Lebanon. A commander’s tank was struck by a drone or missile, killing four—among them the battalion commander, while in another sector of the front five Israeli soldiers were badly wounded by an explosive drone. In response, the Israeli Air Force has carried out an extensive bombing campaign across numerous villages.
The fallout was swift. Talks scheduled for today in Switzerland between the United States and Iran—meant to implement the peace deal—were canceled, with Iran citing the IDF’s actions in its fiefdom in southern Lebanon.
This confrontation was inevitable from the moment digital ink hit digital paper on the Memorandum of Understanding. Neither Hezbollah nor Israel is a signatory to the agreement, and the two have been touting entirely different versions of it. Iran has assured its proxy that an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon is written into the U.S.-Iran MoU, to unfold over a phased 60-day period. Israel, meanwhile, has declared that it will not evacuate its positions in southern Lebanon—and insists it has not been asked to—while U.S. officials have reportedly told it that its right to respond to threats will not be infringed.
Iran wanted this ambiguity. It serves it well, since it can use the conflict in Lebanon as a lever.
And it is. Now Iran is threatening traffic through the Strait again, as I would have expected, and we are back to a game of chicken. Trump's "Truth" post seems to indicate that he wants the MOU to remain in effect—his reference to the 60-day provision suggests that—and both Iran and the US are acting as if the other side is in the weaker position.
First, this shows how unwise it was to allow #Iran's regime to create linkage in the MoU between #Hezbollah and the Strait of Hormuz. It's effectively allowing a foreign terrorist organization to hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage. The Islamic Republic will try to widen the divide… https://t.co/rtk7tk762h
— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) June 19, 2026
IRGC has reportedly told ships in the Strait of Hormuz that: "Since Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon and the complete lifting of the naval blockade and the withdrawal of American terrorist forces from the Persian Gulf and the region are among the main conditions of the agreement between Iran and the United States. The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until these two conditions are met, all ships are ordered not to approach the Strait of Hormuz for their own safety and health, any vessel that defies this order will be targeted.”
So Iran now says that it won't reopen the Strait until Israel completely withdraws from Lebanon, and, at least in their broadcast to ships in the Gulf, Americans withdraw from the region.
Iran-backed Hezbollah is openly bragging about violating the ceasefire.
— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) June 19, 2026
Notice how Al Jazeera posts it on their Arabic, but not English channel. pic.twitter.com/e1snHRHQcl
In other words, they have doubled down on their demands and expanded them.
According to a release from the Israeli Air Force, just earlier, Israel conducted yet another wave of strikes against Lebanese Hezbollah targets in the Bekaa Valley area and Southern Lebanon. Per the release, they targeted launch positions and a number of command centers in both… pic.twitter.com/uRpIi4cfey
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 19, 2026
It's unclear to me how much money has flowed into Iran from sanctions relief. There are indications that the banking flows had already begun, and most certainly Iran's oil has been flowing out the Strait at a remarkable pace since the MOU was announced, even before it was signed. Far from being a "phased" opening, Centcom announced that the blockade was over.
Today, U.S. forces lifted the blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, in accordance with the President's direction. American forces are not impeding the transit of vessels to or from Iranian ports. All U.S. military blockade…
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) June 18, 2026
Today, U.S. forces lifted the blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas, in accordance with the President's direction. American forces are not impeding the transit of vessels to or from Iranian ports. All U.S. military blockade enforcement efforts have ceased. Our great Naval Ships will remain in the general area to make sure that all aspects of the agreement are adhered to, obeyed and in full force and effect.
So it seems pretty certain that billions of dollars have already flowed into Iran's coffers, relieving a lot of the immediate pressure on the regime. And Trump, so far, hasn't retaliated directly in any way against Iran. But their announcement of the closure is just a couple of hours old.
Israel and Hezbollah have announced yet another ceasefire, but that is worth as much as the last one. Iran has proven to be a very powerful tool in the negotiations, and we should expect them to use it as often as they like. I predict on-again, off-again talks to string things out indefinitely as the money flows to Iran.
If you think Iran’s use of leverage over the Strait is going to stop with this, you’re a moron.
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) June 19, 2026
We’ve handed them a trump card over the world economy, and they’ll be using it a lot throughout these “negotiations.”
Buckle up. https://t.co/W6pFYiw7hT
Trump let the cat out of the bag when he told everybody he had no choice but to negotiate the MOU, lest the world economy collapse. He said that to strike back at critics here at home, who were unhappy he gave so many concessions to Iran, and it gave Iran a signal that their negotiating power was vast.
At this time, the only ships visible moving within the Strait of Hormuz via https://t.co/bYX0jXrfTw appear to be in transit to/from Iranian ports following notice by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGC-N) of the closure of the Strait. https://t.co/tOPiRhGnnF pic.twitter.com/yvYZ3EqQJr
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 19, 2026
As of this morning, the only ships transiting the Strait are Iranian-related. That's not good at all, obviously.
As of 9:30 Eastern, oil markets remain relatively calm, with no major spike, so that is good. It's a vote by the market that this is just a bump in the road.
Expect more intrigue and drama today and in the coming days. Iran is testing us as they gain resources. We'll have to see how Trump responds to the tests beyond Truth Social posts.
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