The timing of this obvious trial balloon seems ... equally obvious. John Thune will put the clean CR back on the Senate floor later today, and he needs five more Senate Democrats to break the filibuster and reopen the government. Over the last 48 hours, Donald Trump has practically chortled with glee over the sticks that OMB Director Russ Vought will use to beat the federal bureaucracy if the Schumer Shutdown continues for much longer.
Late last night, Trump reposted this meme, just as a reminder:
So far, the White House and Thune have insisted that they will not negotiate at all during the shutdown. On Wednesday, Thune accused Schumer and Democrats of taking a "hostage" by refusing a clean CR. With all of the warnings about sticks toted by Vought, here comes a potential carrot, via the WSJ:
President Trump has projected unwavering confidence that he is winning the messaging war over the government shutdown. But behind the scenes, his team is increasingly concerned that the issue at the center of the debate will create political vulnerabilities for Republicans.
Advisers are worried that the GOP will take the blame for allowing healthcare subsidies to expire, raising costs for millions of Americans ahead of next year’s midterm elections, according to administration officials.
Inside the White House, aides are discussing proposals to extend the enhanced subsidies for Affordable Care Act health-insurance plans, the officials said. Trump hasn’t yet decided whether he will endorse such a proposal, according to the officials. Republicans say they will only hold negotiations with Democrats on the matter after the government is reopened.
How does the WSJ know what's transpiring "inside the White House"? Simple; the White House is letting them know. Unlike the first couple of years of Trump's first term, this White House has not been an absolute sieve. That almost certainly redounds to the credit of Trump's chief of staff Susie Wiles, the first woman to ever hold that role. Mark Meadows was able to rein in the craziness in Trump's first term, but Wiles has never allowed it to erupt in the first place.
Thus, we can feel reasonably certain that leaks from this White House operate under the same rules as most other administrations. They occur when the leaks benefit the president and the strategic goals of the administration.
And it's not as if the ACA subsidies won't become a problem for the GOP if they expire at the end of the year. As the WSJ also points out, Republican strategists have been warning about this issue for a while now:
Ending the subsidies would result in higher premiums for more than 20 million people. Of the 75 congressional districts where at least 10% of the population is enrolled in the Affordable Care Act, 62 are in red-leaning Florida, Georgia and Texas, according to Kaiser Family Foundation, a healthcare-policy think tank. More than half of the 62 districts in those states are represented by Republicans.
GOP strategists have for months warned of political fallout from the expiration of the subsidies. Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio in July issued a memo outlining the risks for Republicans for not acting. “By broad bipartisan margins, voters want to see the tax credits extended rather than expire at the end of the year, whether in the context of premiums doubling or 5 million families losing their health insurance,” the memo said. “This includes solid majorities of Trump voters and swing voters.” The findings have been presented by White House aides to Senate Republicans, an official said.
So yes, the Trump administration and the GOP have skin in this game, too. Unless they can advance a full repeal of ObamaCare and passage of some other system that will save voters money, they are stuck working within the ACA. Extending tax credits may make some sense, as long as Republicans get some concessions in return. Thune himself said on Wednesday that Senate Republicans are willing to negotiate for those benefits, but not while the government remains shut down, and not in exchange for restoring taxpayer coverage for illegal aliens' health care. Thune has also pointed out -- accurately -- that the question of ACA subsidies can be tackled at any time over the next couple of months rather than immediately in the context of the CR.
This trial balloon is meant to back Thune up on that point. It's a show of good faith, offering real negotiations after the shutdown ends on a point where both parties have significant stakes. It won't be enough for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, but that's not the target audience here. This carrot is getting dangled for the benefit of a handful of Senate Democrats in purple and red constituencies as a face-saving cover to flip on the filibuster for the clean CR. Will it work? We'll find out later this afternoon when Thune calls the next floor vote to pass it and reopen the government.
And let's not forget the formidable array of sticks still in hand at the White House.
Editor’s Note: The Schumer Shutdown is here. Rather than put the American people first, Chuck Schumer and the radical Democrats forced a government shutdown for healthcare for illegals. They own this.
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