Yesterday's big news was Trump's phone call with his 'dear friend,' Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India.
It seems as if all the recent awkwardness and ill feelings over tariffs and Russian oil have been washed away in a flood of bonhomie, a true meeting of the minds, and it all came about because Trump thoughtfully called the PM on his birthday.
India, the Prime Minister announced, would forswear Russian crude from this point forward and buy American.
President Donald Trump said he would roll back punitive tariffs on India in return for an agreement that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would stop buying Russian oil, easing months of tension between the two countries.
Following a phone call with Modi, Trump said on social media that he would cut a US levy on Indian goods to 18% from 25%. The US president is also removing an extra punitive 25% duty applied in response to India’s purchases of crude from Russia, according to officials familiar with the matter.
India would “move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States, to ZERO”, Trump wrote, as well as purchase “over $500 BILLION DOLLARS of U.S. Energy, Technology, Agricultural, Coal, and many other products.”
Isn't it great when the kids make up?
Modi was gushing away at the agreement.
Wonderful to speak with my dear friend President Trump today. Delighted that Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%. Big thanks to President Trump on behalf of the 1.4 billion people of India for this wonderful announcement.
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) February 2, 2026
When two large economies and the…
...When two large economies and the world’s largest democracies work together, it benefits our people and unlocks immense opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation.
President Trump’s leadership is vital for global peace, stability, and prosperity. India fully supports his efforts for peace.
I look forward to working closely with him to take our partnership to unprecedented heights.
Now, I heard word of this while in the car, and one thing about Trump's comments struck me. It's always a tell when he adds his little nuggets that often slip by in all the hubbub of these big announcements or the cacophony of a presser.
This was one of those times when a presidential aside made it into a Truth Social post, and it was quite interesting.
AND, POTENTIALLY, VENEZUELA
...Still, India has taken steps to appease Trump. India’s oil minister said recently that state refiners had signed their first long-term deal to import American liquefied petroleum gas.
In his Truth Social post Monday, Trump said Modi had also agreed to potentially buy more oil from Venezuela. Indian Oil Corp., the country’s largest refiner, could add Venezuelan crude to its diet, an executive at the state-owned firm said last week.
Venezuelan purchases are likely to remain peripheral compared to Russian crude, which become a mainstay for India’s refiners. Modi didn’t address Venezuelan oil purchases in his post.
The Venezuelan oil is meant to replace the oil that India now purchases from IRAN.
Always ratcheting up the pressure.
🚨 BREAKING | TRUMP'S CHESSBOARD MOVE
— Mossad Commentary (@MOSSADil) February 1, 2026
Donald Trump reveals a strategic oil play:
• The U.S. reached a deal with India to buy oil from Venezuela
• That oil replaces purchases previously coming from Iran
• China is now invited to make a similar deal
Pressure Tehran. Redirect… pic.twitter.com/wpkbCp6FtR
...Pressure Tehran. Redirect cash flows.
Change the board without firing a shot.
Always.
The Trump administration is reportedly wasting no time spooling up the necessary ingredients, both physical and regulatory, as far as sanctions, etc., to get the Venezuelan oil industry on the move again.
The Trump administration could issue a general license as soon as this week for companies to produce oil and gas in Venezuela, a person familiar with the plan told CNBC on Tuesday.
Chevronis the only U.S. company currently allowed to pump oil in Venezuela under a special license issued by the Treasury Department. Chevron has several joint ventures with state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA.
President Donald Trump is pressuring the oil industry to invest at least $100 billion to repair Venezuela’s energy industry after the U.S. captured former President Nicolás Maduro in a raid on Jan. 3.
“The President’s team is working around the clock to ensure oil companies are able to make investments in Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. Stay tuned,” White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said in a statement. Bloomberg first reported the news.
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum confirms the U.S. is planning to issue a general license that would allow companies to pump oil in Venezuela. Burgum says it will not only help Venezuela bolster it’s oil output, but help the United States economy as well. pic.twitter.com/fYEqXM1Jdj
— Varney & Co. (@Varneyco) February 3, 2026
The Treasury Department has removed some impediments to transporting Venezuelan crude, but sanctions on companies outside Venezuela that facilitate its production remain in place. That's what they're working on now. The Venezuelans have already passed legislation easing some of their state control of the industry.
Some companies like Exxon are still calling the country 'uninvestable' after being burned one too many times, but there are others more than willing to take the risk to help reopen the fields.
For Venezuelan oil field workers, it can't come a day too soon. What infrastructure they once had has pretty much rotted away from Chavez and then Maduro's neglect.
WATCH: Workers and retirees at Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA around Maracaibo hope oil sector reforms sparked by US intervention will boost the purchasing power of eroding wages and pensions, though optimism remains cautious https://t.co/J69jLHy7kF pic.twitter.com/XdkYOlfFnZ
— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) February 3, 2026
This is a monster play.
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves (~20%)—about 7× the U.S.
— Kirill Dmitriev (@kadmitriev) January 3, 2026
U.S. sanctions have helped keep output around ~700k bpd vs ~3M capacity.
U.S. + Venezuela production would be near ~20% of global supply (almost 2 x of Saudi’s ~10%) —huge market leverage.🛢️ pic.twitter.com/N5cE4Kg1UE
Now. Does China pick up the Russian oil that Modi is spurning, now that its access to Venezuelan oil is gone?
Could be.
But there is no grass growing under any feet at the White House.
Trump admin issues second Venezuela General License to facilitate the “exportation, reexportation, sale, resale, supply, storage, marketing, delivery, or transportation of U.S.-origin diluents”
— Rory Johnston (@Rory_Johnston) February 3, 2026
This had been in the game plan from the outset. pic.twitter.com/6pRWL9jEvw
When these companies can hit the ground running, things are going to happen, and fast.
...Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told CNBC last week that it can ramp up production in Venezuela by 50% in the next 18 to 24 months with approvals from the U.S. It currently produces about 250,000 barrels per day in the South American nation.
It's going to be something to watch.
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